Tuesday, April 26, 2005

U.S. Wants Progress on China Currency

U.S. Wants Progress on China Currency

washingtonpost.com
U.S. Wants Progress on China Currency

By MARTIN CRUTSINGER
The Associated Press
Friday, April 15, 2005; 2:48 AM



WASHINGTON -- The Bush administration, trying to restrain America's soaring trade deficit with China, has rounded up some powerful allies to help convince the Chinese that they must overhaul their currency regime and do it quickly.

The problem is there is no indication the Chinese feel the same sense of urgency.

The administration is going ahead with plans to make China's currency practices a top agenda topic when Treasury Secretary John Snow and Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan serve as hosts for a weekend meeting of their counterparts from the world's seven richest industrial nations.

The Group of Seven countries were expected to go on record again in urging China to stop linking its currency, the yuan, directly to the U.S. dollar. American manufacturers contend this practice has undervalued the yuan by as much as 40 percent, giving Chinese companies a tremendous competitive advantage against U.S. products.

They blame China's undervalued currency for contributing to America's record $162 billion trade deficit with China last year and the loss of 3 million U.S. manufacturing jobs since 2000.

At the G-7 meetings in Washington in October and London in February, China's top economic officials attended as invited guests to take part in the currency discussions.

However, this time around, Chinese officials decided to take a pass, perhaps believing that they had heard enough lobbying on the currency issue for the moment. They continue to maintain that China cannot drop its link to the U.S. dollar because too much currency volatility could disrupt the nation's fragile banking system.

The G-7 discussions, which will begin with a dinner Friday night and wrap up Saturday morning, are a prelude to the spring meetings of the 184-nation International Monetary Fund and its sister lending institution, the World Bank, which occur Saturday and Sunday.

All of the discussions, as usual, will take place under heavy security, although indications are that the number of anti-globalization protesters will be far below the levels that have come out in past years.

Groups pushing rich countries to forgive all the debt of the world's poorest nations planned to stage various demonstrations near the IMF and World Bank headquarters, two blocks from the White House, in hopes of dramatizing the impact on poor nations from further delays in dealing with the debt issue.

At one event, they planned to unveil a massive clock with huge hands to symbolize their contention that "one child dies every three seconds because of poverty, and the G-7 must act now."

Bernice Romero, advocacy director of Oxfam International, said, "G-7 finance ministers must not leave these meetings without a firm agreement on canceling debt."

In addition to China's currency system and debt burdens, the finance officials were expected to discuss the threat posed to the global economy by this year's spike in energy prices and problems associated with America's huge trade deficit and prolonged weak economic growth in Europe and Japan.

Administration officials tried to put the best face on China's absence from the spring meetings, saying it was never their intention to invite China to all four G-7 meetings each year. Treasury Undersecretary John Taylor suggested to reporters Thursday that a good schedule might be to have China attend two meetings each year.

Taylor said the administration believed China could move immediately to allow its currency's value to be set by market forces. He said the IMF had come to a similar conclusion in its latest global economic survey.

President Bush told the American Society of Newspaper Editors on Thursday that his administration was "pressing" China to allow the value of its currency to be set by market forces.

The political urgency of the situation was underscored by a lengthy hearing before the House Ways and Means Committee in which Democratic and Republican lawmakers said something must be done to deal with America's soaring trade gap with China.

Bills have been introduced in both the House and Senate to impose economic sanctions on China if it does not move to a floating currency. One proposal would slap 27.5 percent across-the-board tariffs on Chinese goods coming into the United States until China revamped its currency system.

"People want something more than rhetoric," said Rep. Sander Levin, D-Mich.

© 2005 The Associated Press

JS Online: View of China from Watertown

JS Online: View of China from Watertown

www.jsonline.com Return to regular view

Original URL: http://www.jsonline.com/bym/news/apr05/321046.asp


View of China from Watertown
Business owner, now association spokesman, can see both sides of trade conflict
By RICK BARRETT
rbarrett@journalsentinel.com
Posted: April 24, 2005
When the National Association of Manufacturers wanted to tell Congress about U.S. manufacturers being mauled by China, it sought a credible and matter-of-fact spokesman.

China via Watertown



Photo/Dale Guldan

I have 500 people working for me who wouldn’t be happy about losing their
jobs because of unfair trade with China.

- Richard Wilkey,
Watertown business owner




Photo/Dale Guldan

Chris Williams is an employee at Thermal Spray Technologies Inc. in Sun Prairie. The company’s owner, Richard Wilkey, who also owns a Watertown firm, worries about the effects China is having on U.S. manufacturing.




Photo/Dale Guldan

Mike DePrey works on a part at Thermal Spray Technologies Inc.

The Washington, D.C., group turned to Richard Wilkey, owner of Fisher-Barton Inc., a Watertown company whose products include 1,500 types of lawnmower blades.

Wilkey had the right credentials.

His company had lost business to China, giving him a view of international trade straight from the front lines.

Wilkey realized that China was the world's fastest-growing market, and he had a global view of trade policies, said Patricia Mears, international commercial affairs director for the National Association of Manufacturers.

Wilkey was recruited to testify before the House Ways and Means Committee earlier this month. He accepted the invitation, partly for self-serving reasons.

"I have 500 people working for me who wouldn't be happy about losing their jobs because of unfair trade with China," Wilkey said. "And I wouldn't be very happy about having to close down an operation."

Alarmed over the soaring trade imbalance with China, the National Association of Manufacturers has told the U.S. government it can't wait for the Chinese to crack down on unfair trade practices, such as undervalued currency and theft of intellectual property rights.

"We do not have five or 10 years to solve these problems," Wilkey said. "I have seen many companies around me driven out of business by Chinese competition, and many of them were my suppliers. Not all of these companies were dinosaurs, either. A number of them had made significant investments in technology and modern business methods to remain competitive. They had done all of the right things."

Some of Fisher-Barton's customers have moved operations offshore and taken their entire supply chain with them.

"Once that business is gone, it's gone forever," Wilkey said.

As the U.S. trade deficit widened last month despite an increase in exports, the manufacturers association pointed to China's currency valuation as a "major cause" for the stubborn imbalance.

Over the last decade, China has set its currency rate at about 8.28 yuan per dollar - a rate that analysts say undervalues the yuan up to 40% and makes Chinese exports significantly cheaper.

At the same time, the currency policy drives up the cost of U.S. products sold in China.

Many U.S. manufacturers can deal with the fact that China uses low wages and a lack of employee benefits to keep costs down, Wilkey said. But they should not have to deal with China deliberately undervaluing the yuan, and other unfair trade practices, he added.

"We have got to stop treating China like it's some poor, Third World country," Wilkey said. "When they start cheating, we have to nail them to the wall."

The association wants the Treasury Department to cite China for currency manipulation and seek recourse under international law.

There are numerous proposals before Congress aimed at pressuring China to revalue its currency, including one proposal that would slap a 27% tariff on Chinese imports if Beijing doesn't cooperate within six months.

The steep tariffs would be going too far, Mears said.

That kind of step would be "the most flagrant violation imaginable" of international trade rules, she said. "The truth is that no one can force a country to change its currency policy. It's an issue of sovereignty."

Currency issues overplayed
Steady political pressure from the United States, the European Union and international organizations such as the International Monetary Fund is more likely to convince China to change its ways than steep tariffs, according to Mears.

"China has always said it doesn't want to act under pressure from other countries, but the pressure isn't going to ease up," she said.

The currency issue has been overplayed, said Frank Jaehnert, president and CEO of Brady Corp., a Milwaukee company with manufacturing plants in the United States and China.

"I don't think China is so strong because of currency protection," Jaehnert said. "Their strength is they have low labor costs and a tremendously ambitious work force."

Brady has an eclectic mix of products including factory-floor exit signs, laboratory vial labels and parts for mobile phones.

The company has expanded two of its three factories in China that make parts for Motorola Inc. and other multinational companies.

U.S. companies should not panic over China, Jaehnert said.

Over time, he said, China will lose some of its low-cost competitive advantage as the country raises wages and adopts more Western standards.

"I don't think a revaluation of the yuan is going to make much difference," Jaehnert said. "And what bothers me in this whole China discussion is we focus too much on their strengths instead of our own."

Part of evolution
China is not moving ahead with reforms as fast as Americans would like, but it is making progress, said Anthony Raimondo, a National Association of Manufacturers board member and CEO of Behler Manufacturing Co. in Columbus, Neb.

Behler has a plant in China that produces metal buildings for the Chinese market.

Only rarely, Raimondo said, are people in this country upset about that fact.

"I think it's part of the evolution of global manufacturing," he said. "Over time, you need a physical presence in a country to get a significant share of that market. As for the critics, I would respond by asking how they would like it if Toyota took its 35,000 jobs out of this country."

China should not be seen as a scapegoat for all of the woes of U.S. manufacturers, Wilkey said.

"We are in favor of free and fair trade with China," he added.

But at the current rate, the trade deficit with China could reach $240 billion by the end of the year, according to the National Association of Manufacturers.

The undervalued yuan makes foreign investment in China cheaper and more attractive, thus encouraging U.S. companies to move there, Wilkey said.

"It is hard to find fault with these moves offshore," he said. "You will get labor for about $4 per day. Our health care costs alone are $4 per hour. It looks like raw material costs are subsidized in China . . . and the kicker is that China has a currency advantage of up to 40 percent. The fundamentals are out of whack."

Without a doubt, China has emerged as a leading world economy, Wilkey said.

"Yet we are treating them like a Third World country while they are cleaning our clocks," he said.



From the April 25, 2005, editions of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel
Subscribe today and receive 4 weeks free! Sign up now.

Update 3: China Criticizes U.S. Trade Deficit - Forbes.com

Update 3: China Criticizes U.S. Trade Deficit - Forbes.com
Associated Press
Update 3: China Criticizes U.S. Trade Deficit
04.24.2005, 10:26 PM

A Chinese official rejected U.S. pressure for an early end to China's currency controls and said Washington should take action on its own soaring trade deficits instead of blaming other countries for its economic woes.

The comments Sunday by an official of China's foreign exchange regulator came after President Bush and other officials called on Beijing last week to end its policy of tying the value of its currency, the yuan, to the U.S. dollar.

The United States and other nations say Beijing's fixed exchange rate for its currency, the yuan, is too low and gives China's exporters an unfair price advantage.

"This we cannot accept. I say this in a very blunt manner," said Wei Benhua, vice director of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, speaking at a gathering of Asian business and political leaders in southern China.

"I made it clear to them: this is your problem. You should put your own house in order before you blame your neighbors," said Wei, referring to a recent meeting with U.S. counterparts.

For the first two months of this year, the U.S. trade deficit was running at an annual rate of $717.2 billion - a full $100 billion above the record imbalance of $617.1 billion in 2004.

Chinese leaders say they plan to let the yuan trade freely on world markets eventually, but they say doing so immediately would damage the country's frail banks and financial industries.

"China has no time schedule for the reform," the official Xinhua News Agency quoted Wei as saying. The government "cannot decide a proper time until the basic conditions mature."

Wei blamed the U.S. trade deficit on "a flawed US economic policy" and said China would make currency decisions based on its own economic needs, the reports said.

The Standard - US service firms in China trade-gap play - Markets Section

http://www.thestandard.com.hk

http://www.thestandard.com.hk/stdn/std/others/print.htm=0 cellPadding=0 width=752 align=center border=0>

US service firms in China trade-gap play

April 26, 2005


Major US financial and other service firms have urged China to speed up its market-opening measures, saying that allowing them to do more business could help Beijing cut its politically volatile trade surplus with the United States.


Mainland exports are surging, especially for textiles and other manufactured goods, and Beijing can shrink the trade gap by importing more insurance, telecommunications, delivery and other services, said US Coalition of Service Industries chairman Norman Sorensen.


China's trade surplus with the US hit a record US$162 billion last year, which was the biggest US deficit with any country ever.


``Congress in the United States is concerned about this imbalance and they want it addressed,'' said Sorensen. ``China could moderate this tension and this imbalance by liberalizing financial services.''

China also stands to gain foreign expertize and help in building its economy if it lets US banks and other firms have more access to mainland consumers, Sorensen said.


Beijing protects its fragile banking system from competition by limiting foreign investment and involvement. It has promised to allow foreign banks to compete on an equal footing with the country's lenders by next year as a condition of its entry to the World Trade Organization in late 2001.


US firms want China to speed up those reforms, said Sorensen and other executives.


In meetings with mainland commerce, planning and foreign affairs officials, they called on Beijing to submit an improved services offer to the WTO by the end of next month - in time for new negotiations set for December.


``We were assured that China is preparing a revised offer,'' said coalition president Robert Vastine.


ASSOCIATED PRESS



Copyright 2005, The Standard, Sing Tao Newspaper Group and Global China Group. All rights reserved. No content may be redistributed or republished, either eletronically or in print, without express written consent of The Standard.

The Standard - US service firms in China trade-gap play - Markets Section

Monday, April 25, 2005

China working on Yuan / Renminbi reform timetable

China working on Yuan / Renminbi reform timetablePrinter-friendly page from Finfacts Ireland Business News - Click for the News Main Page - A service of the Finfacts Ireland Business and Finance Portal

World
China working on Yuan / Renminbi reform timetable
By Finfacts Team
Apr 23, 2005, 17:40





Peoples' Bank of China Governor Zhou Xiaochuan
China's Central bank governor said on Saturday there were no serious political or technical impediments to reform of its current fixed currency system and the timetable for any change was under review.

The Peoples' Bank of China chief Zhou Xiaochuan refused to comment on when China would float the yuan (yuan is Mandarin for unit, while renminbi means peoples' currency), but he said that expectations were "too high" that a change in the Chinese currency system would have a significant impact on trade with the United States.

China had a trade surplus with the US of $162 billion in 2004 and in the past week both President Bush and Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan have criticised China's fixed link to the US dollar at a rate of 8.28 yuan, which as been in place since 1995.

The Bush Administration claims that the yuan is undervalued by as much as 40 percent and it is under pressure from the US Congress where there is significant support for a measure sponsored by Senator Charles Schumer of New York, which provides for punitive sanctions if the Chinese do not float the currency.

US manufacturers claim that China has cost America millions of jobs.

Zhou told reporters at an economic conference on the island of Hainan, that work had to be done to strengthen the big commercial banks, to develop China's foreign exchange market and to reduce some "over-control in the foreign exchange side."

Zhou said: "There are, I think, no serious political obstacles. We say that for the exchange rate regime, technically we are ready. But for the reform sequencing, we have our own sequencing considerations. Whether some preparations are already fully done is under certain kinds of review," he added. "People still have a different opinion on that."

Zhou told the conference that the country was on a clear path of reform, and noted that international pressure was not all bad and would force China to speed up reforms to keep conflicts from accumulating.

China's Foreign Exchange Reserves

Separately, China's State news agency Xinhua reports that China's foreign exchange (forex) reserve grew by $206.68 billion in 2004 on the back of surpluses in both current capital and financial accounts, according to a report issued by the country's forex regulator on Friday.

The State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE) said the forex reserve amounted to $609.93 billion, at the last year-end -second only to Japan- while the renminbi exchange rate remained stable all through 2004. Current account surpluses in international payments reached $68.66 billion including $58.98 billion from cargo trade, as against a deficit of $9.7 billion dollars from service trade.

Capital and financial accounts recorded a surplus of $110.66 billion dollars, up 110 percent year on year. The SAFE noted that foreign direct investment remained the major means of capital inflow for China -- adding up to $53.13 billion last year.

Economic Growth of 8.9 percent in 2005

This year China's economy will grow 8.9 percent, according to a forecast released by the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS) on Friday.

The CASS expects actual fixed asset investment growth to be around 14.9 percent this year, saying the total retail sales of consumer goods may rise by about 10 percent in the country, almost the same as last year.

China's foreign trade is expected to increase by 30 percent, according to the CASS report.

The CASS report warned against the possible overheating fixed asset investment and inflation problem, saying the investment is contributing more to China's GDP (gross domestic product) increase.

In 2004 total fixed asset investment accounted for 51.5 percent of China's GDP, and the CASS estimated that this ratio will exceed 54 percent this year.

The report forecasts a 3.4 percent annual growth in the consumer price index (CPI) this year, attributing the CPI rise to the price hike of raw materials, grain and crude oil.

© Copyright 2005 by Finfacts.com

FT.com / Home UK - China urged to ease its rules

FT.com / Home UK - China urged to ease its rules
China urged to ease its rules
>By Steve Johnson
>Published: April 23 2005 03:00 | Last updated: April 23 2005 03:00
>>
The yen and forward contracts based on the non-tradeable Chinese renminbi both jumped sharply yesterday amid mounting speculation that Beijing may be ready to ease its decade-long dollar peg.

China has been under increasing pressure over its currency since last weekend's meeting of the G7 group of leading nations.

The discount on one-year non-deliverable renminbi-dollar forwards widened 550 points yesterday and 950 points during the week to 4,600, the widest level since early January. The market is thus implying an exchange rate of Rmb7.818 to the dollar in 12 months' time, compared to the current Rmb8.278 rate. Shorter-term contracts moved more sharply still, with the one-month forward widening 81 per cent in a week.

The yen rallied sharply yesterday, rising 1.1 per cent to a one-month high of Y105.79 to the dollar, 0.8 per cent to Y138.49 versus the euro and 0.5 per cent to Y202.83 against sterling. Many in the market believe that a renminbi revaluation will usher in a broad wave of Asian currency strength.

The dollar endured a poor week, falling 1.3 per cent to $1.3084 against the euro, having hit a one-month low of $1.3119, and 1.2 per cent to $1.9160 against sterling.

The greenback was buffeted by jitters over a possible slowdown in global growth.

Find this article at:
http://news.ft.com/cms/s/767b78dc-b393-11d9-ad2b-00000e2511c8,ft_acl=,s01=1.html

???�??????????????????

???�??????????????????央行行长称人民币汇率改革是个逐步过程



  新华社博鳌(海南)4月23日电(记者李忠发 刘华)中国人民银行行长周小川23日在博鳌亚洲论坛2005年年会上说,中国的人民汇率改革是一个逐步过程,中国正为此做积极准备工作。

  周小川说,中国正在加强金融机构和金融行业的改革,致力于扩大汇率市场调节作用。中国在汇率改革方面有 自己的明确目标,并将根据自己的实际情况进行改革。周小川是在博鳌亚洲论坛“高层部长级对话:世界经济增长的挑战”专题会上作上述表示的。他说,人民币汇率改革既要考虑内部改革的动因和压力,同时也要考虑国际上的动因和压力。

  他说,人民币汇率改革从中长期角度来看,要配合中国经济对外开放和市场化进程。中国可以按照先前设计的步骤一步步开展改革,从而使改革可以走得稳一点。



来源:新华社 (责任编辑:唐述权)

???�???????:?????????????

???�???????:?????????????国家外汇管理局:中国不会在近期改变汇率制度



  新华社博鳌(海南)4月24日电(记者赵晓辉 周正平)国家外汇管理局副局长魏本华24日在这里对“最早今年下半年、最迟明年初进行汇率改革”的说法予以否定,并表示中国政府对于汇率改革“没有时间表”。

  最近,人民币升值的外界压力加大。有观点说,目前是中国进行汇率 制度改革的最佳时期,中国最早将于今年下半年出台新的汇率政策。

  在24日举行的博鳌亚洲论坛“亚洲一体化和经济增长”分会上,魏本华对此回应说:“中国政府和经济部门对外汇制度改革十分重视,但汇率制度是宏观政策的一部分,涉及各个部门各个环节,决不是一蹴而就的,至少要条件基本具备了才能做出判断。”

  他分析说,很多因素决定了人民币汇率动与不动。作为世界贸易组织的成员,中国政府承诺给外资银行广阔的市场,允许外资银行做人民币业务,而中国的银行也要与外国银行进行竞争。

  “如何提高中国银行的效率,提高公司治理能力,是当务之急,”魏本华说。

  他说,中国银行和外贸企业在基本汇率制度下操作了多年,如果换了浮动汇率的环境,他们要面临很多新的问题。如何规避风险,需要一批金融人才和法律人才,而中国在这方面还很薄弱,需要进行财务规章制度建设。

  此外,魏本华说,在开放的汇率制度下,要有一个比较成熟的外汇市场,而中国在衍生产品、外汇工具方面仍不丰富,其成熟发展尚需时间。

  实行汇率制度改革,资本账户也要达到一定的开放程度。魏本华说,在一个非常浮动的汇率制度下,要关闭资本账户是不可能的。开放的资本账户至少需要43项货币业务,中国只有10来项货币业务是基本开放的。

  “资本账户开放在工业化国家都是需要几十年的时间才实现的,”魏本华说。



来源:新华社 (责任编辑:史江民)

???�????????20%-40%�?????????

???�????????20%-40%�?????????企业生产成本低估20%-40% 人民币汇率成替罪羊
金三林



  ●当前的外汇储备规模是基本合理的,至于美元持续贬值及利率上升使我国外汇储备资产缩水和盈利下降,这是外汇储备管理问题,而不是规模问题

  ●导致中国外汇储备在短期内激增的特殊原因在于人民币升值预期

  ●不受任何外界压力的影响,维持人民币名义汇率稳定仍应该是当前一段时间必须坚持的基本政策

  对压力的任何屈服都将带来更多更大的压力。因此,不受任何外界压力的影响,维持人民币名义汇率稳定仍应该是当前一段时间必须坚持的基本政策。而且,要利用各种渠道坚定地宣传这一政策,努力消除人民币升值预期

  2005年3月末,我国外汇储备余额达到6591亿美元,同比增长49.9%。增速之快,实属罕见,也使我国外汇问题的争论火上加油。仔细分析可以看出,这些争论实际上包含了三个相关的问题,即当前的外汇储备规模是否合适,外汇储备为何在短期内激增,以及与之相关的人民币汇率问题。

  外汇储备规模是否合适

  关于我国外汇储备的合理规模,目前主要有三种观点。一种认为我国外汇储备的合理水平是能够满足6个月的进口需求;另一种考虑了短期外债对外汇储备的需求,认为不能小于短期外债水平的100%。按照这两种观点,我国合理的外汇储备规模应在3000亿美元左右,并保持与进口大致同速的增长,也就是说当前的外汇储备规模是大大超过合理水平了。

  但第三种观点认为,在东南亚金融危机之后,外汇储备的主要功能已从“弥补可能发生的国际收支赤字、平抑外汇市场汇率波动和充当清偿对外债务的保证”向“预防货币危机、提高国内货币信心、应付可能的金融风险以及应对灾难”转变,较高的外汇储备规模对于维持国内外经济主体对我国经济发展和政治稳定的信心非常重要,它的防范作用甚至已经高于实际补救的作用。因此,这种观点认为当前的外汇储备规模是基本合理的。

  笔者认为,外汇储备表现为国际收支均衡的结果,其实质是一国国内经济与国际经济联系的均衡产物。只要是经济正常运行的结果,外汇储备多一些或者少一些本身并不是个太大的问题。至于美元持续贬值及利率上升使我国外汇储备资产缩水和盈利下降,是因为我国外汇储备过多地用于购买美国国债,这是外汇储备管理问题,而不是规模问题。

  外汇储备缘何短期激增

  但问题是,我国外汇储备在短期内连续激增,是有特殊原因的,而已不再是经济正常运行的结果。这就是我们要分析的第二个问题。

  2004年,中国的外汇储备猛增2067亿美元,其中一半的新增外汇储备又是在最后三个月形成的;2005年一季度外汇储备增加492亿美元,同比又多增了126亿美元。外汇储备在短期内超常规增长,已成为一个真正需要高度重视的问题。

  为了维持一个实际上固定的汇率水平,中国央行每天必须投放大量的人民币购买外汇,外汇占款已经成为基础货币投放的主要渠道。在这种情况下,外汇储备的快速增长至少会加大以下三个方面的压力:

  一是外汇占款过多、增长过快,使得货币供给增加,通货膨胀压力加大;二是为减轻通胀压力,央行不得不扩大票据发行规模以回收投放的资金,由于央行发行的票据是要支付利息的,而且票据利率要高于美元资产投资回报率,外汇储备快速增加也意味着央行票据发行成本的增加,央行与财政部门之间的矛盾压力加大;三是央行为了控制货币供应量,更可能采取“对冲”的货币政策操作模式,即在收购外汇投放基础货币的同时,相应减少发放再贷款等信用贷款,增加了货币政策操作空间拓展的压力。

  汇率难题如何选择而导致中国外汇储备在短期内激增的特殊原因,就在于人民币升值预期,这是我们要分析的第三个问题,也是最为核心的问题。

  从央行公布的数据来看,2004年我国外汇储备的增加额中,经常项目约占700亿美元,比2003年增加250亿美元;资本和金融项目约占1120亿美元,比2003年增加600亿美元,外汇储备的增加主要来源于资本和金融项目。而资本和金融项目中,实际使用外商直接投资只有606亿美元,余下的大多为“热钱”。2005年一季度,实际使用外资金额133.88亿美元,进出口顺差165.8亿美元,其他项目的数额都不大,新增外汇储备却为492亿美元,这意味着“热钱”在继续流入中国。而“热钱”的流入,都是基于人民币升值预期的投机行为。

  此外,人民币升值预期又会对国民经济的健康运行产生不良影响。首先,升值预期将使国内企业的进出口行为产生变异,即加速出口和延期进口。2005年一季度全国出口增长34.9%,而进口只增长了12.2%,进出口顺差进一步扩大。其二,升值预期还会对国外投资者行为产生影响,延缓投资进程。2005年一季度,实际使用外资金额同比增长9.48%,合同外资金额同比增长4.5%,增速大幅放慢,而全国新批设立外商投资企业同比更是下降了9.15%。第三,升值预期驱使境内金融机构纷纷减少国外资产运作,将资金调回境内,或增加国外短期借款。2004年,中国新借外债同比增加了102.84%,而且大部分为短期外债。今年一季度的“热钱”中,也有相当一部分是短期外债。

  进出口顺差扩大和“热钱”的流入,反过来又会加大人民币升值的压力,强化升值预期,进而产生循环影响。因此,当前最主要的问题是升值预期背景下的人民币汇率政策选择。

  对于这个问题,国内外目前主流的看法是:在强大的外部压力和升值预期情况下,人民币汇率不宜大幅调整,但可以适当扩大浮动区间,建议的幅度在1%到5%不等。但笔者认为,即使将浮动区间扩大到5%,人民币名义上也升值5%,既消除不了任何国际压力(比如美国对华的贸易逆差问题),也解决不了任何国内经济问题。反而,对压力的任何屈服都将带来更多更大的压力。因此,不受任何外界压力的影响,维持人民币名义汇率稳定仍应该是当前一段时间必须坚持的基本政策。而且,要利用各种渠道坚定地宣传这一政策,努力消除人民币升值预期。

  但维持名义汇率不动,并不意味着我们不采取任何措施。换个思路,我们或许能有更好的选择。

  人民币升值问题之所以能成为全球合唱,其实质就是中国出口的商品价格太低。国内很多学者将中国商品价格低廉归因为中国的低成本劳动力,并将其看成是中国的比较优势。

  笔者不反对这个观点,但我们还必须看到和承认,中国商品价格低廉还有其他成本被严重低估的因素,包括企业以超低价格获取生产要素并规避了其应承担的社会成本。

  中国的水、电、气、成品油、土地等生产要素价格受到政府的严格管制,远低于市场均衡水平;同时,由于社会性管制的缺失,许多企业在环境保护、生产安全、社会保障等方面的投入很少,大多数企业的相关设施未达到国家标准。笔者自己估算,通过上述两个途径,国内企业至少不合理地节省了20%至40%的生产成本。如果这些成本被充分显化,并假设竞争因素使企业自身消化其中的50%,那么我国商品的价格至少会上升10%至20%。换句话说,即使名义汇率水平保持不动,人民币实际上将升值10%至20%。从这个意义上来说,人民币汇率只不过是成本低估的替罪羊而已。

  实际上,生产要素领域的市场化改革已经开始,并使要素价格向均衡水平逼近。尽管这样会增加短期通货膨胀的压力,但我们应该坚持,因为适度的通胀水平也一样有利于缓解人民币名义汇率升值的压力。如果我们的通胀水平比美国高15%至20%,我们就更有理由让那些傲慢而又偏见的美国议员们缄口了。

  总之,与变动人民币名义汇率的策略相比,在短期内保持一个适度的通胀水平,在长期内加大要素市场化改革和社会性管制、使企业的生产成本真实地显化出来,应该是一个更好的选择,一个更符合科学发展观的选择,也是中国政府最可能采取的策略。(作者系北师大经济与资源管理研究所博士)

  《国际金融报》 (2005年04月25日 第五版)

News

News
Independent Home | News | Sport | Comment | Education | Motoring | Money | Jobs | Travel | Enjoyment

Home > News > Business > Comment


Stephen King: Bush threatens to turn up the heat on China, but the US could get burnt
Protectionism is an extraordinarily blunt instrument, a policy that leads to unintended and all too often unfortunate consequences
25 April 2005
The 'Chinese tsunami' that threatens to swamp Africa

Mandelson warns EU is ready to curb Chinese textile imports

Stephen King: Bush threatens to turn up the heat on China, but the US could get burnt

I sincerely hope that Chinese policymakers have access to a collection of asbestos shoes because, according to Rob Portman, President Bush's nominee for US trade representative - and a man seemingly in a hurry to establish his hawkish credentials - "we need to hold their feet to the fire". This charming approach to international trade relations no doubt went down well in front of the Senate Finance Committee last week but the reaction from Beijing will, presumably, be somewhat more frosty (a good thing too: a cool reaction will help to soothe the burns.)

America's new-found hostility towards China doesn't stop there. The Treasury Department has decided to adopt a more "Rambo-esque" approach to Sino-American relations, demanding that Beijing should revalue the renminbi not next week, and not even next month, but now.

America, so it seems, needs immediate action from China: anything less just isn't good enough. And, as if to add insult to injury, no lesser man than Alan Greenspan, the chairman of the Federal Reserve, has suggested that it would be in China's own interests to revalue the renminbi because the alternative - excessive domestic liquidity, a side effect of persistent foreign exchange intervention - would eventually lead to rampant Chinese inflation.

At least Mr Greenspan had the courtesy to argue that a revaluation of the renminbi might be in China's interests. The rest don't seem too bothered about China's aspirations at all, instead preferring to think about the threat to America, and to American jobs, that stems from persistently cheap Chinese exports. In the midst of all these worries, protectionism is rearing its ugly head: Congress is pondering whether to impose huge tariffs on Chinese exports unless China agrees to revalue the renminbi within the next few months.

This is not the first time the US has demanded action from a recalcitrant trading partner. Over the years, the US has frequently pointed its finger at others and demanded action. In the 1980s, Congress threatened Japan with tariffs unless the Japanese allowed the yen to rise and, at the same time, boosted domestic demand. At the beginning of the 1970s, President Nixon imposed import tariffs on other members of the Bretton Woods exchange rate system, and removed them only when the other countries agreed to revalue their currencies against the dollar.

China would do well to look carefully at these two episodes before acquiescing to US pressure. In the 1980s, Japan did exactly what the US demands of China now: the yen rose, Japanese interest rates were cut and the Japanese economy boomed. Japan's trade surplus did come down - as Congress had demanded - but the cost to Japan was, ultimately, enormous: a stock market and land price bubble, a serious misallocation of resources and, eventually, a sad descent into deflation and economic stagnation.

In the early 1970s, the initial revaluation of exchange rates within Bretton Woods didn't amount to very much. But the revaluation revealed to speculators that the Bretton Woods system was no longer one of fixed exchange rates but, instead, a system of adjustable exchange rates. George Soros's forerunners suddenly realised they could bet on the likelihood of further currency appreciation: by the beginning of 1973, the whole system was blown apart. Countries, now cut adrift from any kind of intelligible monetary framework, found themselves facing inflationary and financial market turmoil.

The bottom line is that protectionism is an extraordinarily blunt instrument, a policy that leads to unintended and, all too often, unfortunate consequences. So why do politicians ever go down the protectionist route in the first place? The obvious answer is votes. Politicians think they look tough when they're rattling a few sabres and standing up for the "national interest", and there's no doubt that Congress and, more recently, the US Administration think that a bit of China-bashing can only do some good.

It's not obvious, though, that the latest bellicose approach really is in America's national interest. China's emergence as an economic powerhouse cannot be denied, but to see China's emergence purely in competitive, antagonistic, terms is fairly silly. In part, this is because China has learnt from Japan's mistakes in the 1980s. Japan refused to have anything to do with Western companies, spurning attempts by them to get a foothold on the Japanese mainland. China, though, has actively encouraged inflows of foreign direct investment from Western companies. And, because of this, China's relationship with the rest of the world is, whether the US likes it or not, one of mutual dependence. Hurt China and you may, inadvertently, hurt yourself.

Workers in Western manufacturing industries have good reason to feel threatened by China's rapid growth. Yet this sense of foreboding is nothing new: Western manufacturing has been on a declining trend for decades and China's arrival only continues that trend. I doubt that many US Congressmen look back at the inefficient rust belt that dominated US manufacturing in the early 1980s with any degree of fondness, yet they're in danger of protecting the same sorts of businesses 20 years later.

Companies - and, more importantly, the shareholders who own companies (and I'm thinking here of all those people who have occupational pensions that, in turn, depend on company profitability) - should regard China as an opportunity, a chance to allocate capital more efficiently on an increasingly global stage.

Western consumers will also welcome China's emergence: Wal-Mart would never have achieved its phenomenal success without China's help, and Wal-Mart's success has doubtless been of benefit to US consumers.

For the West, then, the problem with China really lies with the seeming ambiguity of China's impact on the industrialised world. We worry about the potential loss of jobs. Yet we lose sight, in the process, of the income gains that come to us as consumer goods are produced more cheaply by Chinese workers. After all, if DVD players and televisions fall in price, we have more money left over to go on holiday, to eat out, to hone our torsos in health clubs or, for those so inclined, to slob out in front of Sky Sports Extra. And we lose sight of the potential benefits for our longer term financial health as corporate profits rise, boosting the value of our pension funds.

Ultimately, I don't think it's China that's at fault. What we're seeing, instead, is a growing paranoia from politicians who recognise that the free flow of capital around the world, and the opening up of new economies and labour markets, threatens their own sovereign power.

In the same week that American politicians decided to turn up the heat on China's leaders (or, at least, on China's leaders' feet), DaimlerChrysler provided yet another example of the blurred lines associated with China's emergence. Here's a company that is managed mostly by Germans, represents a merger between German and American companies and which, at the Shanghai motor show on Thursday, said that it was moving ahead with plans for a new factory in China to produce cars that will be exported to America.

I've no doubt that, if this venture takes off, China's trade surplus with the US will rise still further because these cars will be cheap. But who, if anyone, should we blame for this? The evil Chinese workers who are prepared to work for very low wages? The devious German managers, who have decided to take jobs away from Detroit and give them to the Chinese? The avaricious shareholders who demand profits at all costs? Or, maybe, the spendthrift US consumers, who are happy to carry on buying so long as the price is right? The reality, of course, is that all these people benefit. The odd thing, then, is that the injuries caused by US protectionist pressures might not be limited to the occasional Chinese burn: there's every chance that Rambo will end up shooting himself in the foot.

Also in Comment
Stephen King: Bush threatens to turn up the heat on China, but the US could get burnt
Business View : Can't find Rover black holes? Try looking for WMD
Expert View: Broadband for some and no band at all for the rest
Hamish McRae: You can blame the usual suspects of red tape and tax, but Europe's problems run deeper
Jeremy Warner's Outlook: Sunderland calls for curbs on wild west frontier of hedge fund capitalism

Asia Currency

???????????? ?????????
亚洲统一货币呼声日渐强烈 前景光明需循序渐进


NEWS.SOHU.COM   2005年04月25日09:48  华夏时报


  早在2003年,有“欧元之父”美誉的诺贝尔经济学奖得主蒙代尔就曾建议,设立由亚洲地区某一组货币组成的共同货币,争取在每个国家不放弃本币的情况下,能让一种叫做“亚元”的区域性货币在亚洲流通。随着亚洲经济一体化的逐步加深,以及美欧货币给亚洲地区货币带来的升值压力,各方对于“亚元”的期望和呼吁日渐强烈。在23日举行的博鳌亚洲论坛年会上,再次提到了这个问题,包括香港特别行政区署理行政长官曾荫权在内的很多与会者对此持乐观态度,认为其前景光明。但也存在着另一种声音:创立亚元目前不太可能。

  乐观派:亚元前景光明

  作为亚元的强力拥护者,香港特别行政区署理行政长官曾荫权指出,统一的货币可以帮助亚洲的统一或者能够成为亚洲实现统一的工具。

  曾荫权表示,亚洲已经获益于全球化,亚洲在世界商品出口的份额已从1985年的10%增长到2003年的26%,亚洲区域内的贸易,每一年是按照14%的速度在增长,这个速度是全球出口增长速度的两倍,而且占东亚出口的一半。现在,亚洲要思考的一个问题是,一个单一或者统一的货币安排是否会促进亚洲区域内的贸易和投资。曾荫权的回答是肯定的,建立亚洲的单一货币对于亚洲经济的繁荣和稳定都非常重要。

  不过,他指出,大多数在亚洲区域内的贸易和亚洲其他地方的贸易产品主要是生产品,而服务行业的份额,尤其是金融服务的份额非常小。如果要考虑建立共同的货币,就必须考虑如何加强国内的金融体系。亚洲的金融服务方面如果能够得到更自由的贸易,才能够实现货币的融合,否则的话根本不可能实现。

  奥地利总理许塞尔则认为,欧元的出现给欧洲各国政府、公司以及来欧洲的旅游者提供了方便,他们不需要去对不同货币的汇率进行计算,带来便利的同时,也节省了大量成本。亚洲同样可以借鉴欧洲的经验。许塞尔说,欧洲合作成功,其标志就是新成员的增加以及欧元的诞生。欧亚两个大陆虽然相隔很远,但欧洲的经验亚洲是可以吸取的。

  悲观派:创立亚元不现实

  同样对于亚元的问题,也存在着相反的声音。

  研究证券和货币的北京中山证券分析师何旭在接受本报记者采访时表示,亚洲想要统一货币创立亚元几乎不可能。因为如果建立亚元,就要以一到两个国家的主题货币作为亚元的主导货币。但目前亚洲还没有一个较为坚挺的货币可以代表亚洲成为“亚元”的主导货币。

  新任亚洲开发银行行长黑田东彦也表示,目前来看,在亚洲地区实施单一货币亚元还不现实。应该先要加强经济合作的基础,一是鼓励外商直接投资;二是加强金融合作,避免出现金融危机的风险,建立货币互换网络;三是政策方面的合作,现在还没有开始,早期阶段的宏观政策应包括通过汇率合作,便利贸易流动和资金流动,并逐步建立亚洲自由贸易区。

  国家商务部研究院的世界经济学博士梅新育认为,创立亚元有经济上的必要性,但目前不可能。他说,由于目前东亚区域内各国、各经济体经济发展水平和经济体制差别太大,而且还有其他容易激化的矛盾。在这种情况下,不要说实现统一货币,就是协调货币政策难度也太大,而且可能激化矛盾。

  如果像有些人建议的以中国货币作为主导货币,有没有可能呢?梅新育博士认为,中国目前的经济实力还不如日本,上述构想不现实,此举除了让中国陷入同邻国的政治争夺而无法自拔之外,没有太大的好处,也不能成功。

  美国哥伦比亚大学教授、诺贝尔经济学奖得主蒙代尔也曾告诫,虽然从长远看人民币是很有潜力的货币,有可能成为亚洲中心货币,但最大问题是现时不能自由兑换,所以美元仍会是亚洲的主要国际货币基础。

  龙永图:需要循序渐进

  那么,亚洲目前到底是否具备建立统一货币的内外环境呢?如果要创立亚元还需要在哪些方面努力?对此,博鳌亚洲论坛秘书长龙永图认为,目前,讨论和建立亚元的时机远未成熟,需要很长时间的研究,但通过博鳌亚洲论坛和亚洲各国循序渐进的努力,这个梦想定会实现。

  龙永图指出,关于建立亚洲货币的问题,在最近讨论亚洲经济一体化过程中是非常关注的问题,现在亚洲几个地区包括中国、日本、韩国、中国的台湾和香港已经占了外汇储备当中非常重要的比例,未来亚洲货币的建立对于全球的金融和货币政策必将产生非常重要的影响。

  有关人士指出,亚洲应加强经济合作的基础,鼓励外商直接投资。同时,加强金融合作,避免出现金融危机的风险,建立货币互换网络,并建立亚洲自由贸易区。(编辑:郭琼丽)

( 责任编辑:魏喆 )


http://business.sohu.com/20050425/n225324656.shtml

China reserve up

???????? ?????????????
管理层的艰难抉择 外汇储备飙升让央行左右为难


NEWS.SOHU.COM   2005年04月25日10:29  经济参考报


  央行最新公布数据显示,2005年3月末,国家外汇储备余额为6591亿美元,同比增长49.9%。1至3月份外汇储备增加492亿美元,同比多增126亿美元。

  没有任何迹象表明海外游资正在撤离中国。

  但分析人士认为,外汇储备持续攀升正在加大央行的货币政策难度,并将威胁到中国的金融稳定。

  有多少海外热钱流入中国?

  究竟有多少海外热钱流入中国上海房地产,可能是永远的谜。

  从宏观层面上看,去年中国外汇储备一年净增2070亿美元,其中贸易顺差为319亿美元,引进外资606亿美元。

  由正常渠道换取的外汇储备增额为925亿美元。那么,还有约1100亿美元净增外汇储备无法与经济数据挂钩。

  分析人士认为,央行外汇储备增加额超过经常项目顺差和资本金融项目顺差之和部分,主要是由统计遗漏造成的。而在这些遗漏中,既有境外对境内的各种形式的直接投资和正当融资,也包括在预期人民币不久将升值基础上以汇率投机为目的热钱流入。

  中金公司首席经济学家哈继铭表示,投机性资金流入的比重正不断上升,在资本项目方面,2004年出现大量海外个人到中国境内购买房地产的情形,其中一些明显超出了购房自用的范畴,带有投机性质。在贸易和直接投资方面,也存在“弄虚作假”情况,例如,某些贸易商通过高报出口和低报进口等方式将外汇输入中国。从表面看是贸易活动或直接投资,但实际上是用来购买人民币资产或者房地产。

  据商务部统计数据显示,中国在2003年累计吸引外商直接投资(FDI)535亿美元,首次超过美国,成为世界上吸引直接外资最多的国家。2004年外国直接投资更达到606亿美元。但所谓外国直接投资并非全都是真正意义上的外国投资。世界银行估计,中国直接投资统计数据中有近1/4来自国内企业在外盈利的迂回流入,为的是享受中国对外资的政策优惠,包括税收政策。

  业内人士表示,去年约80亿美元的海外热钱投入了上海房地产市场,今年第一季度海外热钱占上海市商品住宅成交量的40%,甚至可能更高。

  负面压力越来越大

  分析人士认为,在结售汇制度下,外汇储备增长过快必然引起外汇占款量的相应增加,造成基础货币和广义货币(M2)的大量投放。

  在中央银行的资产负债表中,外汇占款平均达到15700多亿元。为保证“适度从紧”的货币政策的有效性,1995年中央银行面对进一步上升的外汇占款,被迫采取“对冲”方式,削减或回收对商业银行的再贷款,以稳定信贷总规模,这就造成企业资金的普遍紧张,而人民币的相对“稀缺”又构成人民币进一步升值的潜在压力。

  为了冲消外汇占款上升对基础货币和通货膨胀的压力,央行不得不大量发行票据回收流动性。目前央行票据余额已经达到11070亿元(占GDP8.1%)。大幅增长的票据发行使其成本不断上升。

  据中金公司统计数据显示,从2004年1月6日到2005年3月10日为止,央行共发行了20858.5亿元的央行票据。为此央行需付出590.64亿元利息支出(根据各期发行的数量、收益率、以及期限计算;包括已付与应付但未付的票据利息),相当于GDP的0.43%。

  哈继铭表示,央行票据的利息支出实际上是准财政赤字。持续攀升的贸易顺差正在使中国经济过热更加难以遏制,因为中国今年第一季度的贸易顺差达到了165.8亿美元,而去年第一季度则有84.4亿美元的贸易逆差。

  高盛(中国)首席经济学家梁红认为,中国仅凭这些贸易顺差就可使第一季度的国内生产总值(GDP)较上年同期增长8%至9%,而上周三国家统计局公布的一季度的GDP数据是9.5%。

  瑞士信贷第一波士顿的陶冬表示,中国出口大幅增长是不可避免的,这是生产全球化的必然结果,跨国公司一直在将生产业务转移到低工资国家。

  雷曼兄弟(Lehman Brothers)的首席亚洲经济学家Rob Subbaraman在一份研究报告中写道,“中国的整体贸易顺差正在飙升,这可能会让呼吁人民币升值的声音越来越大。”

  管理层的艰难抉择

  而对不断攀升的外汇储备,刚刚接任建设银行党委书记的前外管局局长郭树清呼吁:减少中国出口量,并调整外贸政策。

  郭树清表示,不加选择地支撑出口和外资流入的举措已经造成一些短期经济问题,其中包括对房地产市场的投机性投资过重,以及中国沿海地区与其他地区经济增长差距加大。

  他指出,在25年前对外开放的初期,采取政策鼓励出口并支持引入外资是合情合理的,但实现贸易顺差并非在任何时候都是件好事。目前在出口中占据很大比重的低附加值产品出口的增长并不能够持久。

  值得注意的是,在外汇局党组书记、局长胡晓炼主持的外管局党组民主生活会上,央行行长周小川表示,目前我们正处于国际金融形势迅速发展变化的年代,形势发展变化速度之快,带来了一系列问题和挑战。一个国家经济出现问题,往往表现为金融或外汇领域危机。因此,外汇局所面临的改革任务很重,面临的挑战很艰巨。周小川指出,希望外汇局领导班子认真总结1994年以来深化外汇管理体制改革所取得的经验,加快外汇管理体制改革,在国家整体的改革开放中不拖后腿。

( 责任编辑:田瑛 )


http://business.sohu.com/20050425/n225325800.shtml

Japan Wants to Have Renminbi 'Demonized': Analysis

Japan Wants to Have Renminbi 'Demonized': Analysis
Last updated at: (Beijing Time) Wednesday, March 12, 2003
Japan Wants to Have Renminbi 'Demonized': Analysis
Not long after the unsuccessful hawking of the "Theory of China Exporting Disinflation" by the Japanese Financial Minister at the meeting of the G7 on Feb.22, 2003, a major Japanese paper "Nihon Keizai Shimbun" again released an article on Mar.2, saying that China was exporting ceaselessly into Asian countries the "disinflation".




PRINT DISCUSSION CHINESE SEND TO FRIEND





Not long after the unsuccessful hawking of the "Theory of China Exporting Disinflation" by the Japanese Financial Minister at the meeting of the G7 on Feb.22, 2003, a major Japanese paper "Nihon Keizai Shimbun" again released an article on Mar.2, saying that China was exporting ceaselessly into Asian countries the "disinflation". The article asserted that the products exported from China were of low price and of low labor cost, thus incurring the fall of wage-income and the tumble of realty price and further causing the diffusion of disinflation in the Asian region.

Before that, an article released by the Japanese "Yomiuri Shimbun" on Jan.28 under the title of "Chinese export increase accelerated the currency constraint in Japan" reprimanded that China had to a certain extent intensified the currency constraint in Japan. Around this Mar.6 a Japanese councilor aired an opinion, censuring that China should inflate the rate of the people's currency so as to alleviate the impact on the economy in Japan and the world due to China's export of disinflation. The very person described China as a "Seven-headed Monster". Even if it has something wrong with the three heads it can still go forward. And so Japan cannot do anything about it. In the meantime, according to the report of China Taiwan media, "the government and the public in Japan all begin to worry about the influence exerted by China's cheap labor and the low price for land-use."

Dec.4, 2002, a Japanese vice minister of finance published an article on the British "Financial Times", saying that the disinflation in China was exported by way of diffusion to Taiwan, Hong Kong and to the whole world and so China should take up the responsibility of inflating the people's currency. Before the meeting of the financial ministers of the G7 to be held in Paris this year the Japanese financial minister announced by availing himself of all occasions that he would work out a so-called program combating the global disinflation. And he would also ask the other countries to jointly adopt an agreement together with Japan in order to force China to inflate the exchange rate of the people's currency just as did the western countries in 1985 to force Japan to inflate the Yen by adopting the "Plaza Agreement". When the meeting of the financial ministers of the "Seven Countries Group" was going on, Musajuro Shiokawa the Japanese Finance Minister once again condemned and protested China's people's currency policy. Arguing that China was incessantly increase its exportation of cheap goods, which was a great cause incurring the currency constraint in Japan he again put forward the demand for the inflation of the people's currency. "Too much importation of China's cheap goods has not only caused the currency constraint in Japan," said he, "but also the root-cause of the global economic depression."

An informed person of the People's Bank of China recently revealed to the reporter of China Youth Daily, the ways and doings taken by the Japanese government have never been discussed or brought face to face with the Chinese government whether they were direct or indirect, non at all. Japan wanted to impose, of his own accord, pressures on China by way of international community. However, Japan, as a good-neighborly country of China is doing neither flesh, fish, nor fowl in so far as the morality and justice is concerned. The Chinese side holds what Japan is doing is ignominious and will take no other effect than doing harm to the relations between the two countries.


Root-cause of the above is to "use a neighbor's field as a drain"
In regard with Japan's frequent peddling of the "Theory of China Exporting Disinflation" Yuan Yuedong, a senior specialist on Japanese economy with the International Finance Institute of the Bank of China when recently having a special interview with the reporter, was of opinion that the fundamental cause for Japan's currency constraint had things to do with the "slow movement in the adjustment of Japan's economic structure", the "intensification in the out-moving of traditional

Industries" and the "failing of the newly booming industries as expected". All these problems have so far not been solved.

When no solution could be found internally Japan began to fumble for "external reasons", said Yuan Yuedong, to find out his "foe" and "scapegoat". For some 10 years, the Japanese economy was landed in a depression while the Chinese economy has witnessed a continuous booming for some 20 years on end. This has provided Japan with a life-saving grass to catch with.

Yuan Yuedong was of opinion that the Chinese commodities of reasonable price and good quality exported to Japan have met with great appreciation from the Japanese customers. This has actually restrained in a way the Japanese price. If you say none at all, it's by no means an objective viewpoint, but very minute. The question is: the limited impact of the Chinese exported goods on Japan was limitlessly overstated by some persons in Japan with ulterior motives. Some persons with conservative minds in Japan would in no way like to see China develop at such a fast speed and lopsidedly hold that China exported too many goods to the outside.

To put all these in a nutshell, Yuan Yuedong said Japan should do something to bring its thoughts back onto a right track to face directly with the reality of a fast development in China, and not to do anything as "dumping rubbish in the neighbor's yard". It is requested that Japan should better do something by finding the reason out from itself. China's development is not a threat for Japan but a "substantial opportunity for Japan's development".

By People's Daily Online

Sunday, April 24, 2005

Hong Kong's Tsang says case for single Asian currency is 'overwhelming'

Hong Kong's Tsang says case for single Asian currency is 'overwhelming'
http://au.news.yahoo.com//050423/19/u3e8.html
Sunday April 24, 03:32 AM


Hong Kong's Tsang says case for single Asian currency is 'overwhelming'

Photo : AFP
BOAO, China (AFP) - Hong Kong's caretaker leader Donald Tsang said there was an "overwhelming" case for a single Asian currency, but that the objective had to be attained step-by-step.

"The case for a single Asian currency is overwhelming," he told a gathering of businesspeople, officials and academics in the south Chinese resort town of Boao, but added: "We must learn to walk before we can run."

"If there is a sense of Asian unity, then a single Asian currency can either facilitate that Asian unity or become a means towards that end. But unfortunately, life is not that simple," he said.

He pointed out that the vast diversity of the Asian economies made it an extremely difficult task to bring about a single currency in the region, but that governments also needed to do more to bring the region together.

"We must first create the conditions for greater free trade in financial services before we can even begin to talk about monetary integration and cooperation," he said.

He urged Asian governments to remove hurdles to increased trade in financial services as a first step towards the eventual objective of a single currency in Asia.

"Asia has unwittingly erected regulatory barriers against trade with each other in a variety of financial products," he said.

"We have the irony of growing free trade in physical goods, but relatively little trade in financial products within Asia."

For example, it is easier for a bond listed on the Irish Stock Exchange to be traded within Asia than it is for a Hong Kong mutual fund to be permitted to be traded in any of the Asian markets or vice versa, he said.

"Asia is strong in manufactures and natural resources, but relatively weak in financial services," he said.

"We are dominated by large domestic banking systems, our capital markets remain fragmented and we have not yet begun to build strong retirement and social security funds to provide for our ageing populations," he said.

Tsang was speaking at the Boao Forum for Asia, an annual economic gathering that Beijing hopes to develop into a regional parallel to the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland.

Friday, April 22, 2005

Intro: Foreign Exchange

Foreign Exchange
Foreign Exchange (updated 22 Feb 99)

Foreign exchange (forex) markets form the core of the global financial market, a seamless twenty-four hour structure dominated by sophisticated professional players - commercial banks, central banks, hedge funds and forex brokers - and often extremely volatile. Many investors, particularly American ones, tend to ignore currency movements, and few financial analysts are trained to analyze the details of forex markets. But this is a mistake. As the 1997 Asian crisis and its aftermath vividly reveal, foreign exchange these days tends to lead economic activity. And the foreign exchange markets are huge, growing and increasingly powerful.

According to the Bank for International Settlements, the central bank for central banks, average daily turnover on the world's foreign exchange markets reached almost $1,500 billion in April 1998, 26% higher than when it last measured forex flows in 43 different countries three years earlier. Transactions involving dollars on one side of the trade accounted for 87% of that forex business. Almost a third of all forex trading takes place in London, by far the world's largest center, with New York and Tokyo second and third. Although London forex trading grew more slowly than New York over the three years to 1998, its average daily turnover remains greater than New York and Tokyo combined, having risen from $464 billion to $637 billion.

To put these figures in perspective, daily trading volume on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) is only about $20 billion; activity in short-term US government securities is around ten times that at $200 billion; and so at $1,500 billion, foreign exchange trading is seven and a half times the volume of trading in short-term US government securities and seventy-five times NYSE trading. This volume is far greater than the size of foreign currency reserves held by any single country. The forex markets cannot be ignored: for their size and forecasting ability; and for the potential that developments in these markets have for the future of the dollar as the world's dominant currency.

In the past, trading in the real economy controlled relative currency relationships. Since most currency flows were to settle trading patterns, there was a balance as goods and capital moved at about the same speed. But now the leads and lags are the other way around. While in name forex markets exist to facilitate international trade, in practice, the bulk of turnover in these markets is attributable to speculation. Because financial flows are many times the size of trade flows and because financial flows are nearly instantaneous, currency market levels now tend to set trade: if a country's currency becomes low relative to others, domestic producers find it easier to export. The market sets the economy.

Foreign exchange guru: Richard Olsen

In the pre-radio and telephony days, information about markets moved by post, horses and even by carrier pigeons. Investors with information in one market would send their instructions to other markets and success was often an outcome of the speed of transferring the messages.

Today's global environment also puts a premium on speed, but it is not measured in days or hours but nanoseconds. Currency trading departments are decentralized so that individuals, usually young, nimble and quick, can make massive decisions on their own. The trading rooms of major institutions trading currencies for their own accounts often contain no one over the age of thirty-five, none with bonus possibilities less than multiple millions and all eager to take risks to achieve personal gain.

It is perhaps not surprising that currency markets trading in hundreds of billion dollars a day, open twenty-four hours and with information moving so fast that there is always the chance of an information advantage would attract speculative attention. And not surprising either that the value of speed and ability to grasp all the markets' information at once would attract academics building new models. One of these, and one of the best, is Richard Olsen of Olsen and Associates (O&A), a high-frequency data processing firm in Zurich.

A visit to O&A, in a refurbished flour mill alongside Zuriichsee is like a visit to Silicon Valley. Attire is California casual, tee shirts and jeans, though Olsen does wear a tie to see clients. Dogs and bikes sit outside offices while their owners are huddled over computer keyboards. Conversation is usually in English though it is hardly the first language for the majority. Academic disciplines are mathematics, economics or almost anything else. The common characteristic of the people is smart, very smart.

Olsen and his colleagues are the best at acquiring and analyzing high-frequency data, using very advanced mathematical techniques to forecast currency movements. By high frequency, they mean second by second, and forecasting might be for an hour or so ahead, perhaps even a week if long-term - the value of high-frequency forecasts decay rapidly as the information that produced it is disseminated.

Counterpoint

Smart as it is, there are times when the approach of Olsen and his colleagues has failed to work. Like other more simple 'data mining' and historically based methods, it works in periods when currency movements are following a trend but gets 'whipsawed' with penalizing transaction costs in trendless markets. And during a change in the trend, O&A might identify a turn but not know the difference between a minor and a major turn.

Yet this group comes closer to modeling how the foreign exchange world really works than others. When there are new academic insights, they are likely to note them early.

A broader social counterpoint to today's forex markets is that with this daily volume of electronic, invisible money flowing throughout the world, a single nimble trader can drive a monetary institution to the wall. A trader is often compensated by a share of the trading profit, which can put tens of millions into his or her pocket. The trading institution takes the risk and the trader takes the profit: a true asymmetrical payoff scheme operates to pyramid risks. A central bank seeking to dampen its currency swings may come forward with a few billion but this is typically something that a single trader could command. In these circumstances, a central bank attempting to influence a currency is like sending a bicycle onto a superhighway.

The size of forex trade has played its part in the series of currency crises in emerging nations during the 1990s. The capacity for massive daily foreign currency flows to take place made possible the almost overnight collapses of the currencies of Thailand, Indonesia and Russia in 1997-8. As confidence in the economies of these countries fell away, demand for their currencies dried up as investors took their capital out or stopped bringing it in. Governments had tried to buy their own currencies to underpin their value but could not keep up with the sellers. When they stopped their own forex activity, the forces of demand and supply saw the baht, rupiah and ruble in turn crash in value, deepening the crisis of confidence and economic slowdown.

Some commentators are now recommending a tax on forex dealings: for example, Nobel Laureate James Tobin has warned that free capital markets with flexible exchange rates encourage short-term speculation that can have a 'devastating impact on specific industries and whole economies'. To avoid this real economic havoc, he advocates a 0.5% tax on all foreign exchange transactions in order to deter speculators, a remedy dubbed the 'Tobin tax'.

There are three rationales for the proposed Tobin tax: the first is that the volume of foreign exchange transactions is excessive - fifty to a hundred times greater than that required to finance international trade; the second is related to the first - reducing volatility offers more independence to national economic policy-makers; and the third is simply the tax-raising abilities of such a tax, which is linked with the view that the financial sector is relatively undertaxed.

Guru response

Richard Olsen comments: 'People fail to realize the importance of forex markets to support the globalization of the 'investment business'. Relative to trade flows, investments across borders have increased much more dramatically. The forex markets have to be able to accommodate the demands of these international investors, who want to sell their foreign holding at a moment's notice. Even though the forex markets have grown, the growth has been insufficient to support the requirements of an international investment community.'

'The introduction of electronic transaction systems has speeded up transactions in forex dramatically during the past six years. There is a side effect that has been neglected by many of the commentators. Similar to the money multiplier, there is a 'market liquidity multiplier'. If the efficiency of the transaction system increases, then transactions are settled much more quickly. This has the effect that liquidity dries up much more rapidly than in the past.'

'My inference is that today's forex markets are far too small to support our globalized financial community. The effect will be erratic price movements, as we saw on 7 October 1998 with the 20% shift in the dollar-yen exchange rate.'

'The introduction of the euro will make things worse. I think that we have to look at the euro as a merger of the European countries. Europe will thus become like one big football stadium with a strong US counterpart. The world will thus have two big football stadia. The stadia need wide roads, that is, highly liquid forex markets. Unfortunately, the new dollar-euro exchange rate will not be sufficiently liquid to absorb the large shifts of capital that will occur between the dollar and the euro.'

'Professor Amartya Sen, who received the 1998 Nobel prize for economics, explained in great detail that starvation is not a problem of a lack of food, but deficiencies in the distribution system. We face a similar situation with the financial markets, where the fundamental economy is in satisfactory shape, but the 'allocation system', that is, the financial markets and in particular the forex markets and the balance sheets of the banks, are in deep trouble.'

Where next?

Currency attacks are becoming a depressingly common feature of the global economy. But the exact timing of the onset of an attack is notoriously difficult to predict. Richard Olsen has developed a global financial early-warning system, which tries to do the same thing as a gadget that tells someone when they are getting their next heart attack.

He comments: 'We have been looking at the data now for many years and we have learned a lot about what really makes a market function successfully. And, most importantly, how the components within the market - that is, the market makers, the medium and long-term investors - interact, and what is required to build a healthy market or, in reverse, what leads to a negative market with large-scale shocks.' For obvious reasons, such a system would be of immense interest to regulators and speculators.

The core determining factor of a currency's value is the health of the real national economy, especially the balance of payments current account. If there is a surplus on the current account, that is, a country sells more goods than it buys, then buyers have to acquire that currency to purchase goods. This adds to foreign reserves and bids up the price of that currency. Conversely, a current account deficit implies the need to sell the local currency in order to acquire foreign goods. Persistent current account deficits, particularly if allied with relatively low foreign reserves, indicate a problem.

A currency's value is also affected by levels of inflation and the domestic rate of interest. High rates of interest and low inflation make a currency attractive for those holding assets denominated in it . So typically one country raising interest rates while others remain the same will raise the value of its currency as money flows into the country. This will have a limited effect if the 'fundamentals' are wrong.

Comparative inflation rates, interest rates and balances of payments will all give clues to likely medium term movements of a currency. But a key factor determining short- term currency values is market sentiment. There can be a self-fueling process in which enthusiasm for a currency, or the lack of it, drives the exchange rate. Speculators might decide, as they did during the European Monetary System debacle of 1992-3 and the Asian and Russian crises of 1997-8, that a currency is overvalued or simply that there are speculative gains to be made by selling it.

Currency attacks are triggered when a small shock to the fundamentals of the economy is combined with systemic weaknesses in the corporate and banking sectors. One facet of such systemic weaknesses is the effect of belated hedging activity by some economic actors in the economy whose currency is under attack. The more these actors try to hedge, the greater is the incentive for others to follow suit. This unleashes a whiplash effect, which turns a potentially orderly depreciation into a collapse of the currency. In other words, if speculators believe a currency will come under attack, their actions will precipitate the crisis; while if they believe the currency is not in danger, their inaction will spare it from attack - attacks are self-fulfilling.

The magnitude of the shock necessary to trigger an attack need not be large, which makes predictions very difficult. Nevertheless, it is possible to draw some broad conclusions on the vulnerability of currencies to attack. In particular, there must be a pre-existing weakness, which will prevent the authorities from conducting a full-fledged defense of the currency by raising interest rates. The weakness may not be lethal in itself (though it can become lethal once the situation deteriorates) so it is a necessary condition but not a sufficient condition for a speculative attack.

Self-fulfilling attacks may affect any country - with a fixed exchange rate and high capital mobility - that is in the gray area between 'fully safe' and 'sure to be attacked'. Recent research suggests that countries with strong trade links with a country that has recently experienced a currency crisis is highly likely to face an attack itself - the growing phenomenon of contagion in foreign exchange markets.

Read on

Online

www.forex.co.uk - a website called Forex Watch, which has a mass of charts and technical analysis of currency movements
www.olsen.ch and www.oanda.com - the websites of Olsen and Associates

Wednesday, April 20, 2005

Gov Report 2004 China Internet Information Center

China Internet Information Center

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Report on the Work of the Government

By Premier Wen Jiabao on March 5, 2004



Following is the full text of the Report on the Work of the Government delivered by Premier Jiabao at the Second Session of the 10th National People's Congress on March 5, 2004.



I. Review of the Past Year's Work

II. Principal Domestic Tasks for 2004

III. Government Self-improvement

Fellow Deputies,


This government has now been in office for a year. I now submit a report on its work on behalf of the State Council for your examination and approval and also for comments from members of the National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference.



I. Review of the Past Year's Work


Last year was a significant and unusual year in the course of China's development. It was a year in which we made remarkable achievements in reform and opening up and in the modernization drive. In the face of a complex and volatile international situation, the unexpected outbreak of the severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) and frequent natural disasters, governments at all levels and the people of all our ethnic groups put into practice the guiding principles of the Sixteenth National Congress of the Communist Party of China (CPC) under the leadership of the CPC and the guidance of Deng Xiaoping Theory and the important thought of Three Represents. We braved difficulties and hardships in an indomitable and innovative spirit and made important advances in building a moderately prosperous society in all respects.



l We won a great victory in the fight against SARS.

l The economy grew rapidly. China's GDP increased by 9.1 percent over the previous year and reached 11.67 trillion yuan. Per capita GDP passed the important benchmark of US$ 1,000, calculated at the current exchange rate.

l China's financial strength grew noticeably. Total government revenue was 2.17 trillion yuan, 278.7 billion yuan more than the previous year.

l Foreign trade expanded significantly. Total import and export volume was US$851.2 billion, 37.1 percent more than the previous year, raising China from fifth to fourth place in the world.

l We created more jobs than planned. A total of 8.59 million urban residents became employed and 4.4 million laid-off workers were reemployed.

l People's incomes increased. Urban per capita disposable income grew by 9 percent in real terms, and rural per capita net income rose by 4.3 percent in real terms.

l China's first manned spaceflight was a complete success.



These achievements indicate that China's overall national strength has reached new heights. They have boosted the confidence and courage of all our people to continue forging ahead.



The work we did over the past year was mainly in the following six areas.



1. Taking resolute measures against SARS and concentrating our resources on the campaign against it



China suffered from a disastrous SARS outbreak last spring. The Party Central Committee and the State Council gave top priority to protecting people's health and lives and promptly investigated SARS and took steps to prevent and treat it. We enforced the Law of the People's Republic of China on the Prevention and Treatment of Communicable Diseases, formulated the Regulations on Public Health Emergency Response, and classified SARS as a communicable disease. We reported the facts of the SARS situation exactly as they were and mobilized the general public throughout the country to control the outbreak. The State Council and local governments established anti-SARS headquarters to coordinate human, material and financial resources and to make full use of primary-level organizations in both urban and rural areas, so as to ensure that prevention and treatment work was done quickly and orderly. We organized research on and made significant progress in diagnosing, treating and preventing SARS. We took such measures as providing free treatment for SARS patients among rural workers in urban areas to prevent the spread of SARS to rural areas.



During the difficult days of our anti-SARS campaign, leading cadres at all levels took to the frontlines, the people throughout the country united as one, all sectors of society pulled together, large numbers of medical workers faced danger fearlessly, and the Chinese nation withstood a severe test.



2. Exercising timely and appropriate control to promote stable and rapid economic development



We adhered to the policy of expanding domestic demand and continued to implement a proactive fiscal policy and a prudent monetary policy. We took measures to exercise macro-control over new developments as soon as they arose in the course of economic operation.



When the SARS outbreak hit, we worked unflaggingly to prevent and control it, while at the same time unswervingly promoting economic development. We concentrated on strengthening key areas, stimulating industrial production and ensuring unimpeded flow of goods and materials. In addition, we promptly adopted such supportive policies as reducing or exempting taxes and administrative charges on industries that were worst hit by SARS and granting soft loans to them. We also enacted measures for increasing employment and rural incomes. All this helped minimize the impact of the SARS outbreak on economic development.



We provided guidance and control for investment, mainly through a combination of economic and legal means. We further rectified and standardized the order of the land market and screened development zones of all types to stop disorderly and unauthorized acquisition of farmland. We increased the deposit-reserve ratio for financial institutions to an appropriate level to bring the excessively rapid growth of credit under control. In exercising control, we did an appropriate amount of fine-tuning and dealt with problems individually.



We expanded support for agriculture, rural areas and farmers and made plans in a timely fashion to ensure the continued enthusiasm of major grain producing areas and grain producers. We strengthened coordination of economic operation and took measures to increase supply and rationally guide the growth of demand, thus alleviating transport difficulties and shortages of coal, electricity, petroleum and important raw and processed materials.



We stepped up the strategic restructuring of the economy and put greater efforts into a number of key projects vital to economic growth and economic restructuring. In particular, we sped up the launching and construction of water control, energy and transport projects. The second phase of the key water control project at the Three Gorges on the Yangtze River was completed successfully and work on the third phase began.



The eastern section of the pipeline for transmitting natural gas from the west to the east was completed. Laying of track proceeded smoothly on the Qinghai-Tibet Railway trunk line.



Transmission of electricity from the west to the east was increased. Construction of the eastern and central routes of the south-to-north water diversion project began. Large-scale development of the western region continued. Implementation of the strategy to revitalize northeast China and other old industrial bases was begun.



3. Accelerating the development of social undertakings on the basis of an overall consideration of all issues



The spread of SARS exposed problems arising from disparities between economic and social development. We promptly made necessary adjustments to the government's priorities and investment to stimulate the development of social undertakings. The central government spent 85.5 billion yuan in 2003 on education, health, science and technology, culture and sports, 12. 4 percent more than the previous year. Treasury bonds worth 16.3 billion yuan were issued to support the development of social undertakings, an increase of nearly 200 percent.



We improved the national public health system, focusing on epidemic prevention and control and on rural areas. The National Plan for Developing an Information System for Public Health Monitoring and the National Plan for Developing a System for Medical Rescue and Treatment in Public Health Emergencies were formulated and implemented. A system was set up for early warning and response for public health emergencies. Public health infrastructure was improved, with the focus on networks spanning provincial, city (prefecture) and county levels for disease prevention and control. The central government worked with local governments to build more rural health and medical institutions. Pilot projects for a new cooperative medical care system and medical assistance system were initiated in rural areas.



The State Council issued the Decision on Further Strengthening Rural Education. Increased financial support was extended to rural education from the central budget and treasury bonds. Priority was given to subsidizing rural teachers' salaries in the central and western regions, renovating dangerous primary and secondary school buildings, carrying out pilot projects in modern distance education and aiding needy students. Many cities began to make schooling available for the children of migrant rural workers, and the governments of those cities took over primary administrative responsibility.



Great progress was made last year in basic research, strategically important hi-tech research, and industrial application of new and high technologies. The State Council began formulating a national medium- to long-range program for scientific and technological development. It organized many experts to participate in feasibility studies and a number of important research results have already been obtained.



Reform of the cultural system and the development of cultural undertakings were vigorously promoted. Efforts were intensified to rectify the cultural products and services market. Fresh achievements were made in amateur and competitive sports.



Population and family planning work was further strengthened. Fresh progress was made in the areas of land and resources administration, environmental protection, forestry development and ecological improvement.



4. Caring for people's well-being, creating more jobs and administering social security work well



We consider it highly important to protect the vital interests of the people and help them, especially the needy, in solving problems in their work and daily lives.



Governments at all levels conscientiously implemented a series of measures drawn up by the Party Central Committee and the State Council for increasing employment and reemployment and increased their efforts, capital spending and policy support in this regard. The central government allocated an additional 4.7 billion yuan of subsidies for job creation. We increased our employment guidance and services for last year's college graduates, who were the first to be enrolled under the college expansion plan of 1999. By the end of last year, 83 percent of last year's graduates from regular institutions of higher learning had found jobs, 600,000 more than the previous year.



To continue ensuring the "two guarantees" (guaranteeing that the living allowances for workers laid off from state-owned enterprises and that the pensions of retirees are paid on time and in full) and the "three-stage guarantee" for laid-off workers, the central government spent 70 billion yuan in 2003, 19.9 percent more than the previous year; of this sum, subsidies for subsistence allowances for the urban poor increased from 4.6 billion yuan in 2002 to 9.2 billion yuan in 2003. This allowed 22.35 million urban residents throughout the country to receive such benefits.



In 2003, the central government began making annual allocations of special funds to help local governments assist ex-servicemen who are working in enterprises to solve their financial difficulties. Benefits were again raised for disabled revolutionary servicemen and other people who are entitled to special care by the government.



We further intensified efforts to alleviate rural poverty through development and we invested more to improve working and living conditions in underdeveloped areas. We made all-out efforts to fight disasters and ensure adequate disaster relief.



Central budget funds totaling 8.03 billion yuan were spent on relief for people affected by floods, droughts, earthquakes or other disasters, up 63.9 percent over the previous year, and 2.79 billion yuan was invested in post-disaster reconstruction. As a result, proper living arrangements were made for people in disaster-afflicted areas, production resumed and reconstruction proceeded in an orderly way. Governments at all levels took the problem of wage arrears for migrant rural workers very seriously, worked harder to resolve it and achieved initial results.



5. Pressing forward with institutional innovation and making significant progress in reform and opening up



Institutional restructuring of the State Council was accomplished smoothly on the basis of the plan approved at the First Session of the Tenth National People's Congress and the adjusted and newly set up bodies are now operating normally.



Significant progress was made in establishing a macro-control mechanism, restructuring the management of state assets and establishing a mechanism for oversight and management of the banking sector.



We unified the mechanisms for administering domestic and foreign trade and improved monitoring systems for food and workplace safety. Institutional restructuring of provincial governments has been basically completed. The reform of the administrative examination and approval system was deepened.



Fresh progress was made in transforming state-owned enterprises into stock companies. Reforms of the electricity, telecommunications and civil aviation industries were accelerated. The economic returns of state-owned industrial enterprises and enterprises whose controlling stake was owned by the state increased substantially; they generated a total of 378.4 billion yuan in profits, 45.2 percent more than the previous year.



The reforms of the banking, securities and insurance industries progressed steadily. We formulated and implemented a pilot plan to transform state-owned commercial banks into stock entities. The system for examining and verifying the issuance of securities was reformed. Remarkable progress was made in transforming state-owned insurance companies into stock companies.



After several years of deliberation, we began a pilot project for reforming rural credit cooperatives in eight provinces and municipalities directly under the central government. The experimental reform of rural taxes and administrative charges was extended to cover the whole country.



Policies and measures for promoting the development of the non-public sectors of the economy were further implemented.



We deepened the rectification and standardization of the market order and cracked down on manufacturing and marketing of counterfeit and substandard goods, smuggling and other illegal and criminal activities. This improved the market climate and helped protect the legitimate rights and interests of both consumers and producers.



We worked conscientiously to fulfill the commitments we made for accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO). We continued to lower tariff rates and opened the service sector wider to the outside world. We further relaxed control over who could engage in foreign trade.



We formulated and put into effect a plan for reforming the mechanism for export tax rebates; this will gradually bring about a rational settlement of the longstanding problem of overdue export tax rebates.



We intensified our work dealing with anti-dumping investigations made against China and settling trade disputes. The import and export mix was further improved. China utilized US$53.5 billion in foreign direct investment in 2003. State foreign exchange reserves reached US$403.3 billion at the end of the year, US$116.8 billion more than at the beginning. The exchange rate for the Renminbi remained stable.



Last year, we signed the Closer Economic Partnership Arrangement with both Hong Kong and Macao, thereby strengthening economic ties between the mainland and the two regions.



6. Improving the legal system and maintaining social stability



We put great effort into improving government legislation. The State Council submitted five bills in 2003, including a draft law on oversight and management of the banking sector and a draft amendment to the Foreign Trade Law, and enacted 28 administrative regulations, including the Provisional Regulations Concerning the Oversight and Management of State-owned Assets in Enterprises.



To solve problems in our handling of indigent migrants, we formulated and implemented the Measures for Assisting Vagrants and Beggars with No Means of Support in Cities together with supporting measures. The implementation of the Legal Assistance Regulations helped solve the difficulties people in financial straits faced in filing lawsuits.



We increased our efforts to maintain law and order by taking comprehensive measures, focusing on high-crime areas. We further improved public order by cracking down more severely on violent and other serious crimes. We steadfastly enforced laws in the interests of the people and maintained strict police discipline, and we concentrated on the problems of detention beyond the legally prescribed time limits and illegal use of coercive measures to protect the lawful rights and interests of citizens. We improved the overall quality of procurators and judicial and public security officers and made full use of the important role of public security organs and armed police units in safeguarding social stability.



In accordance with the Party Central Committee's instructions, governments at all levels last year encouraged a groundswell of study and practice of the important thought of Three Represents and the guiding principles of the Sixteenth National Congress of the CPC. Socialist political civilization and spiritual civilization were strengthened. New achievements were made in building a clean government and fighting corruption and in our work concerning ethnic, religious and overseas Chinese affairs. New steps were taken to modernize national defense and the armed forces. Our diplomatic work entered a new phase.



None of these notable achievements of the past year came easily. We attribute them to the Party Central Committee's broad vision and correct leadership and to the concerted efforts of the people of all ethnic groups. On behalf of the State Council, I would like to express our sincere gratitude to all our workers, farmers, intellectuals and cadres; to all those who work for the cause of socialism; and to the members of the People's Liberation Army, the armed police and the public security police.



I would like to extend our heartfelt thanks to the people of all ethnic groups, to all democratic parties and mass organizations and to people from all walks of life for their trust in and support for the work of the government. I would also like to express our sincere thanks to all our compatriots in the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, the Macao Special Administrative Region and Taiwan as well as overseas Chinese who care about and support the development and reunification of our motherland, and to all our friends in other countries who care about and support China's modernization drive.



In reviewing our work of the past year, we are clearly aware that many difficulties and problems remain on our way ahead, that there are still quite a few shortcomings in the government's work, that there remain areas our people are not satisfied with, and that it will take a long time to fundamentally eradicate longstanding and deep-seated problems.



Rural incomes have grown too slowly; the task of increasing employment and improving social security is arduous; development in different regions of the country is not balanced; the income gap is too wide among some members of society; and pressure on resources and the environment is mounting.



As economic growth has accelerated, a number of new problems have emerged. These include, among others, the excessively broad scale of investment, the serious problem of haphazard investment and low-level, redundant construction in some industries and regions, the strain between supply and demand in energy, transport and some raw and processed materials, the marked decrease in grain production, and the widespread illegal appropriation of farmland.



The development of social undertakings lags behind, and people have strong complaints about the cost and availability of schooling and medical treatment. Many low-income residents in both town and country lead relatively difficult lives. Serious crimes have occurred in some places. Frequent serious accidents that inflict heavy loss of life and property have taught us a sobering lesson.



We are also clearly aware that some government officials have a subjective, formalistic and bureaucratic style of work, and they are wasteful, extravagant and fraudulent, and sometimes even corrupt. It will be an arduous task for the government to rectify itself and fight corruption.



We must not evade these difficulties and problems but instead face them squarely; we must work hard to resolve them and not let them grow. The government will shoulder heavy responsibilities for years to come. We must remain sober-minded, become more aware of potential problems and enhance our sense of historical responsibility. We must make up our minds to forge ahead in spite of difficulties and to work in a pioneering and creative spirit and in a down-to-earth manner. We must take on new tests with a fresh mental outlook and a new style of work, and we absolutely must not fail to live up to the expectations of the people.



II. Principal Domestic Tasks for 2004


The year 2004 is a crucial year for China's reform and development. The main ideas and principal tasks for the work of the government are: to take Deng Xiaoping Theory and the important thought of Three Represents as our guide; to comprehensively put into practice the guidelines of the Party's Sixteenth National Congress and the Third Plenary Session of its Sixteenth Central Committee; to make the most of the present important strategic opportunities while they last; to make development our top priority and adhere to the scientific viewpoint of development; to pay more attention to exercising macro-control, balancing the interests of all parties, putting people first, and promoting reform and innovation in accordance with the "five balanced aspects" (balancing urban and rural development, balancing development among regions, balancing economic and social development, balancing development of man and nature, and balancing domestic development and opening wider to the outside world); to concentrate on resolving prominent conflicts in economic and social development and acute problems concerning the vital interests of the people and properly balancing reform, development and stability; to promote all-round, balanced and sustainable development of the economy and society; and to coordinate the progress of socialist material, political and spiritual civilizations.



1. Strengthening and improving macro-control and maintaining stable and rapid economic growth



The basic focus of this year's economic work is to safeguard, guide and utilize the enthusiasm of all sides for accelerating development in order to achieve stable and rapid economic growth without drastic fluctuations. In setting a target for this year's economic growth of around 7 percent, the central government has taken into consideration both the need for continuity in macro-control and the relationship between the pace of economic growth and the conditions for its attainment, including supply and demand in energy, important raw and processed materials, and transport capacity, also taking into account the need to alleviate the pressure on resources and the environment.



This target also encourages all sides to focus on deepening reform, adjusting the economic structure and improving the quality and efficiency of economic growth and to devote more financial and material resources to promoting social development and strengthening weak links.



To ensure effective macro-control, we need to maintain consistency and stability in our macroeconomic policies while adjusting the intensity and focus of policy implementation at the proper time and to an appropriate degree in response to developments and changes in the economic situation. By "at the proper time," we mean seizing the opportune moment for introducing control measures by observing small clues that may indicate what is coming in order to forestall any possible trouble. By "to an appropriate degree," we mean that macro-control should neither be too loose nor too tight and that we must not apply the brakes too hard or apply control measures too rigidly.



We must adhere to the policy of expanding domestic demand and continue to implement a proactive fiscal policy and a prudent monetary policy.



The issuance of construction treasury bonds is an interim policy adopted during a period of insufficient demand. Their scale should be reduced gradually as the increase in nongovernmental investment accelerates. We plan to issue 110 billion yuan in construction treasury bonds this year, 30 billion yuan less than last year.



As the issuance of treasury bonds is to be reduced year by year, it will be necessary to appropriately increase the investment from the central budget for regular construction annually in order to develop a regular government investment mechanism and stabilize the sources of funding. To begin with, we plan an increase of 5 billion yuan this year. The general idea is to appropriately increase investment from the central budget for regular construction each year for several years while systematically decreasing the issuance of treasury bonds, and at the same time ensuring that the size of the deficit remains at the current level.



We will adjust the way funds from construction treasury bonds are used, concentrating them on promoting economic restructuring and ensuring all-round social development. This year, funds from the sale of treasury bonds will be directed toward rural areas, social undertakings, the western region, northeast China and other old industrial bases, ecological improvement, environmental protection, and ongoing bond-financed projects.



We need to manage and use treasury bonds well and ensure the quality of the projects they finance and the efficient use of investment capital. We must continue to do our fiscal and taxation work well by working hard to increase revenue and reduce expenditure, collecting taxes in strict accordance with the law and guaranteeing funding for key items.



We should make full use of the role of monetary policy, appropriately control the size of credit and optimize the credit structure to support economic growth while fending off inflation and financial risks. We will work to basically balance international payments and keep the exchange rate for the Renminbi basically stable at a proper and balanced level.



One important task for macro-control this year is to appropriately control the scale of investment in fixed assets and firmly halt haphazard investment and low-level, redundant construction in some industries and regions.



Guided by market forces, we will use a comprehensive range of measures, mainly economic and legal means supplemented by any necessary administrative measures, to strengthen guidance and control.



First, industrial policies and planning should be improved and the information release system for industries should be improved to correctly guide nongovernmental investment.



Second, we must quickly formulate and revise standards for admittance into industries and enforce market admittance strictly. Projects that do not meet standards for environmental protection, safety, energy consumption, level of technology or quality and have not yet been started should be blocked and those already under construction should resolve such problems, while those already completed should be upgraded within a specified time.



Third, land-use management must be improved in accordance with the law. No land should be approved for projects that fail to meet the requirements of the state's industrial policies and standards for admittance into industries. We should continue clearing up problems relating to development zones and rectifying and standardizing the land market.



Fourth, auditing and oversight of credit transactions must be strengthened. Financial institutions should not make any loans to new projects or rebuilding and expansion projects that do not meet the requirements for market access.



Fifth, the taxation system must be tightened and the practice of introducing unauthorized tax privileges must be stopped and rectified. On the basis of these measures we will strive to optimize the investment structure, keep the overall investment volume at a reasonable level and improve returns on investment.



In order to take a new road to industrialization, we must base the national economy and society on IT and upgrade the industrial structure. We will energetically promote the development of new and high technology industries capable of spurring economic growth and with proprietary intellectual property rights. We will accelerate the revival of the equipment manufacturing industry. We will energetically develop modern distribution, tourism, intermediary services and other aspects of tertiary industry, and gradually raise their proportion in the national economy.



To ensure stable and rapid economic development, we must alleviate the current disparities between supply and demand in energy, important raw and processed materials and transport capacity.



On the one hand, we must increase the production of coal, electricity and processed oil while at the same time strengthen the regulation of economic activity to balance supply and demand in coal, electricity, oil, transport capacity and important raw and processed materials while meeting the needs of the people, important industries and key enterprises. We must speed up the development of large coal mines, important power generating facilities and power grids, the exploration and exploitation of petroleum and other important resources, and the construction of major transport trunk lines and hubs.



On the other hand, we must increase production and practice economy, with the emphasis on economizing. This is not only urgently needed to alleviate the current disparities between supply and demand, but is also a long-term strategy to alleviate the pressure on resources and the environment. The way the economy grows must change, and all industries must eliminate waste, reduce consumption of energy and raw and processed materials, and use resources more efficiently, to develop production and consumption patterns that conserve resources and build a conservation-minded society.



Balancing investment and consumption is an important aspect of this year's work for macro-control. Consumption occupies too small a proportion of China's GDP. This is not conducive to ensuring a stable increase in domestic demand, sustaining rapid economic growth and establishing a beneficial economic cycle.



We must work hard to increase the incomes of both urban and rural residents and raise their purchasing power. Regulation of income distribution will be intensified to enable low- and middle-income people to consume more. Consumption on credit must be expanded, consumption policies must be optimized and the consumption climate must be improved. To adapt to changes in consumption patterns, we need to expand the consumption of services and improve the production and supply structure.



The reform measures we take should enhance consumer confidence, so as to create positive consumer expectations and increase immediate consumption. We should gradually reduce the rate of investment in relation to the rate of consumption.



2. Consolidating and strengthening the position of agriculture as the foundation of the national economy and increasing rural incomes and agricultural production



Solving problems facing agriculture, rural areas and farmers is a top priority in all our work. Once again, China's agriculture is in a crucial period of its development. This year we must take more direct and effective policies and measures to strengthen, support and protect agriculture and increase rural incomes in line with the need to balance urban and rural development.



First, the overall grain production capability must be maintained and increased. The strictest possible system for protecting farmland will be implemented and control over the use of farmland will be strengthened in accordance with the law. We will resolutely put an end to illegal acquisition and use of farmland and rectify unauthorized changes in the use of primary farmland. Reform of the system for land expropriation and requisition will be accelerated, and the expropriation and requisition procedures and mechanisms for compensation will be improved to ensure that the compensation for expropriated or requisitioned land is appropriate. The acreage sown in grain crops will be expanded, and the yield per unit area increased. Support will be focused on increasing production in major grain producing areas. Projects to industrialize production of high-quality grains will be undertaken. We will make primary farmland capable of producing stable, high yields.



Second, we will promote strategic restructuring of agriculture and the rural economy. Great efforts will be made to develop high-quality, high-yield, cost-effective, eco-friendly and safe agriculture, to improve the quality of agricultural products and enhance their competitiveness. We will carry forward the development of industrial belts for producing competitive agricultural products and promote the industrialization of agriculture. We will energetically develop animal husbandry and prevent and control the spread of the highly pathogenic bird flu and other animal epidemics. We will encourage the development of industries that process agricultural products and other non-agricultural industries in rural areas and expand intra-county economies. We will steadily carry out the process of urbanization. We will improve the employment environment for rural workers in cities, provide them with more and better training and create more jobs for them in various ways.



Third, we will press ahead with the reform of rural taxes and administrative charges. All taxes on special agricultural products will be repealed except for tobacco, thus reducing the financial burden on farmers by 4.8 billion yuan annually. Beginning this year, the agricultural tax rate will be reduced by more than 1 percentage point per year on average, and agricultural taxes will be rescinded in five years. The agricultural tax burden on farmers will be reduced by 7 billion yuan this year. The central government will appropriate 39.6 billion yuan this year from its budget for transfer payments to support the reform of rural taxes and administrative charges. We will accelerate reforms of county and township government institutions.



Fourth, we will deepen the reform of the grain distribution system. All controls over grain purchase and sales markets will be lifted. The reform of state-owned grain enterprises will be accelerated. Control and regulation of grain markets will be strengthened, and subsidies will be given directly to grain producers. The state will appropriate 10 billion yuan this year from its grain risk fund to directly subsidize these producers in order to stimulate their enthusiasm for grain production. The prices of the means of agricultural production will be better monitored and controlled to protect farmers' interests.



Fifth, we will increase investment in agriculture and rural areas. Governments at all levels must invest more in agriculture, rural areas and farmers. This year, the central government will appropriate over 30 billion yuan for this purpose, at least 20 percent more than last year. Treasury bond funds should be invested mainly in the construction of six categories of small projects for rural areas (water-efficient irrigation, potable water supplies, roads, methane production facilities, hydroelectric plants and pasture enclosure) and in construction of water control projects, in order to improve the living and production conditions of farmers. We will continue to aid the rural poor through development by increasing funding for poverty alleviation in various ways and giving people work in place of relief subsidies. Rural financial services will be improved. To assist rural residents expand production, rural credit cooperatives will extend more micro-credit loans to individual families and groups in rural areas.



Sixth, progress in agro-science will be accelerated. We will tackle agro-science problems with greater intensity and increase our ability to make advances in agro-science and hold them in reserve and find applications for them. We will strengthen the system for spreading the application of science and technology in rural areas. We will energetically promote wider application of advanced applied technology that can help increase production and improve productivity. We will expand both the size and scope of subsidies for developing seeds of high-quality crop varieties.



3. Coordinating economic development in different regions and promoting the development of the western region and the revitalization of northeast China and other old industrial bases



Promoting the coordinated development of all regions is of strategic importance to China's modernization drive. We need to steadfastly push forward with the development of the western region, revitalize northeast China and other old industrial bases, promote the development of the central region and encourage faster development in the eastern region so that the eastern, central and western regions can better interact, complement and support each other, and develop together.



We will continue to implement the strategy of developing the western region. On the basis of a conscientious review of our experience, we will improve our policies and carry out relevant measures to ensure positive and orderly progress. We will work in a down-to-earth manner to ensure successful implementation of such key ecological conservation projects as returning farmland to forests and animal breeding grounds to pastures, protecting natural forests, bringing sources of sandstorms under effective control and preventing karst areas from becoming stony deserts. We will strengthen infrastructure development efforts, emphasizing major projects of key importance to the overall economy to increase the potential for economic development. At the same time, we will continue to pay adequate attention to the construction of smaller projects that will improve the living and production conditions of farmers and herdsmen. Social undertakings will be promoted, with priority given to compulsory education, public health and primary-level cultural undertakings. We will encourage the development of economies with local characteristics and competitive industries and promote the development of key regions.



We will conscientiously implement the strategy for revitalizing northeast China and other old industrial bases, working to get off to a good start this year. We must carry out all the policies and measures of the central authorities, emphasizing innovation in institutions and mechanisms and opening wider both domestically and internationally. We need to accelerate economic restructuring and technological progress, especially for key industries and enterprises, transform the resource-based economies of certain cities, and solve the problem of sinking land and cave-ins above exhausted mines in coalmining areas. We must uphold the principles of self-reliance and hard work and let cadres and the general public give full expression to their initiative and creativeness.



Accelerating the development of the central region is an important aspect of our endeavor to ensure well-balanced development of regional economies. The state is encouraging the central region to exploit its geographical and economic advantages to quicken the pace of its reform, opening up and development, modernize its agriculture, and build key areas for commercial grain production, strengthen its infrastructure development, expand its competitive manufacturing and new and high technology industries, and raise its levels of industrialization and urbanization.



Accelerating development of the eastern region will strengthen the country financially, materially, scientifically and technologically, thereby providing more support for the development of the central and western regions. The eastern region should continue making the most of its advantages, speed up efforts to upgrade its industrial structure and make its economy more oriented to the global market; areas where conditions are most favorable should take the lead in becoming basically modern. The eastern, central and western regions should increase cooperation in various ways and gradually achieve common prosperity through balanced development. The government will continue to take measures to help old revolutionary base areas develop more quickly.



4. Continuing to implement the strategy of invigorating China through science and education and staying on the road of sustainable development



In the course of development, we will steadfastly give priority to education and devote more energy and financial resources to accelerating its development. We will adopt a fresh round of measures to implement the Action Plan for Reinvigorating Education, with the focus on compulsory education, particularly in rural areas.



This year we will begin to implement the plan to make nine-year compulsory education basically available throughout the western region and basically eliminate illiteracy among the adults there by 2007. The central government will spend 10 billion yuan on this work.



The system for managing compulsory education in rural areas must be improved by shifting the main responsibility to county governments and increasing transfer payments from central, provincial and city (prefectural) governments for compulsory education in poverty-stricken counties. The central government will contribute 6 billion yuan to carrying out the second phase of the plan for renovating dangerous primary and secondary school buildings in rural areas.



Both central and local governments will increase their investment to develop modern distance education in rural primary and secondary schools. We will work to optimize the education structure, take energetic and steady steps to develop higher education, and put more effort into developing vocational education and continuing education.



Schools of all kinds and at all levels should fully implement the Party's education policy, emphasize competence-oriented education, deepen the reform of education and improve its quality. We will standardize and develop non-government funded education. Unauthorized collection of fees by educational institutions must be resolutely stopped to reduce the financial burden on students' families.



This year, we will continue to concentrate on formulating a medium- and long-range state plan for developing science and technology in order to define the strategy, objectives, tasks and policies in this field for the coming 15 years. Institutional reform and innovation in the field of science and technology should be continued. We will accelerate the establishment of a national innovation system and construction of the science and technology infrastructure, and effectively strengthen basic research.



We will carry out a number of projects of major importance for overall economic and social development, promote the integration of science and technology with industry and encourage the application of new and high technologies in industrial production. We consider social and natural sciences equally important and will make full use of the important role of philosophy and social sciences in economic and social development.



We should conscientiously implement the strategy of reinvigorating China through human resource development. Training, recruiting and properly using talented people in all fields should provide substantial personnel and intellectual support for the modernization drive.



We will vigorously implement the strategy of sustainable development and successfully carry out all work related to population, natural resources and the environment in line with the need to balance development of man and nature.



We will keep the birthrate low and improve the health of newborns. We will improve the infrastructure and service system for family planning at the primary level and strengthen the management of family planning among the floating population. Work related to senior citizens should be carefully conducted.



We will implement the national plans for ecological and environmental protection and conservation conscientiously and implement a strategy for developing forestry focused on ecological conservation. We will intensify law enforcement to strengthen ecological and environmental control and monitoring. We will strictly control the discharge of major pollutants and work hard to eliminate environmental pollution that seriously threatens people's health and safety.



We will energetically promote the recycling industry and clean production. We will protect our land and resources in accordance with the law and utilize them rationally. We will pay close attention to the development and protection of marine resources. We will better conserve our water resources and use them more economically. We will do a good job of disaster prevention and reduction.



5. Accelerating the development of health, culture and sports and promoting spiritual civilization



We have three priorities in the area of health this year. The first is to strengthen the public health system. We will try to establish within three years a fully functioning system for disease prevention and control and for emergency medical aid that covers both urban and rural areas in order to increase our ability to deal with serious epidemic diseases and other public health emergencies. We need to maintain a high degree of vigilance and take firm and effective measures to control SARS, AIDS, schistosomiasis and other serious communicable diseases.



The second priority is to improve medical and sanitation conditions in rural areas and carry out pilot projects on a new type of rural cooperative medical care system. We need to focus our medical and health efforts on rural areas, upgrade the medical and sanitation infrastructure and train more medical and sanitation personnel there to gradually alleviate the shortage of medical services and medicines there. We will press ahead steadily with the pilot projects for a new type of system for rural cooperative medical care and health services based on the actual conditions in different regions. Our objective is to establish a rural medical care system organized and guided by the government, based on mutual assistance of the participants, and with voluntary participation of local people and diverse sources of funding from individuals, collectives and the government, one which takes treatment of serious diseases as its main responsibility and ensures that the rural population benefits from it.



The third priority is to vigorously promote the trial reform of the urban medical care and health service system. We will continue to reform the basic medical insurance system for urban working people, the medical care and health service system and the pharmaceutical production and distribution system. Medical institutions should be managed according to their type in order to ensure rational distribution and efficient utilization of the available health care resources. Community-based health care should be developed and medical and health services should be improved. At the same time, an extensive patriotic sanitation campaign should be carried out in both urban and rural areas.



The people's intellectual and cultural needs are constantly increasing along with the economic development and social progress in China, so we must attach greater importance to cultural development. It is necessary to energetically develop an advanced socialist culture.



We will vigorously promote national spirit centered on patriotism and intensify the ideological and moral education of young people in particular. We must encourage the general public to participate in activities designed to promote spiritual civilization.



We will strengthen basic-level cultural development in rural areas, urban communities and enterprises. We will spread scientific knowledge and promote a scientific spirit, a scientific and healthy lifestyle and good manners. We must further develop literature, art, the press, publishing, radio, film and television. We will follow a strategy of product excellence to provide more healthful, inspiring cultural works that people can enjoy.



We will press ahead with formulating an overall plan f or cultural restructuring and a program for cultural development. We should promote the reform of the system and innovation of the mechanisms of the cultural industry, give more support to non-profit cultural undertakings and improve our policy for the cultural industry to give a greater role to the market and ensure the simultaneous development of cultural undertakings and the cultural industry. We should do more to protect our cultural relics and archives as well as our natural and cultural heritage.



We will continue to strengthen the development and management of the market for cultural products and the Internet, fight unremittingly against pornographic and illegal publications and actively conduct cultural exchanges with other countries. We will carry out extensive mass fitness programs and strive to raise the standards of our competitive sports. We will continue to work hard to prepare for the 2008 Olympic Games in Beijing and the 2010 World Exposition in Shanghai.



6. Seizing the opportune moment and deepening economic restructuring



We will systematically carry forward reforms this year, focusing on certain areas in accordance with the decision adopted at the Third Plenary Session of the Sixteenth CPC Central Committee and strive to make fresh progress in some important areas.



We will deepen the reforms of the state asset management system and state-owned enterprises. We need to promptly improve legislation pertaining to oversight and management of state assets and methods for its implementation, conduct research to establish a budgetary system for state capital management and a performance evaluation mechanism for enterprises, and make sure that the responsibilities for state asset management are truly met.



We should energetically work to transform state-owned enterprises into standard stock companies, optimize the structure of property ownership, improve corporate governance and encourage enterprises to change how they operate. We will vigorously develop a mixed ownership economy and gradually make the shareholding system the principal form of public ownership.



We will press ahead with the reform and reorganization of the telecommunications, electricity and civil aviation industries, make steady progress in the reform of the postal service and railway transport, and encourage the commercialization of urban public utilities. A number of large, competitive companies or conglomerates that own proprietary intellectual property rights and name brands should emerge through reform and development. We will continue to reform collectively owned enterprises and develop diverse forms of the collective economy.



We will vigorously promote the development of the non-public sector of the economy and actively guide it. Governments at all levels must promptly eliminate or revise regulations and policies that restrict the development of this sector and implement measures that relax market access. We will conduct further studies and formulate specific methods to encourage non-public enterprises to participate in the reorganization of state-owned enterprises and expand into infrastructure development, public utilities and other industries and domains.



We will take measures to ensure that non-public enterprises receive the same treatment as other enterprises in investment, financing, taxation, land use and foreign trade. We will protect their legitimate rights and interests and improve government service to and oversight over them, so as to support and encourage qualified non-public enterprises in their efforts to grow stronger and larger. We will speed up the establishment of a modern system of ownership.



We will carry forward the reform of the financial system. We need to accelerate the reform of the wholly state-owned commercial banks, focusing on a pilot project to transform the Bank of China and China Construction Bank into stock enterprises. Other commercial and policy banks must also deepen their reform. We will press ahead with the trial reform of rural credit cooperatives and, on the basis of a review of that experience, gradually expand the reform to a wider area.



We will continue to reform and open up the capital market and develop it steadily. We will allow the amount of bonds issued by enterprises to increase and the proportion of direct financing by enterprises to rise gradually. We will continue reforming the insurance industry and expand the insurance market. We need to improve the regulatory systems for banking, securities and insurance, coordinate these systems better, and tighten financial control to ensure sound operation of the financial sector.



We will carry forward the reform of the fiscal and taxation systems. We will focus on gradually shifting from a "production VAT" to a "consumption VAT" by reclassifying equipment investment as VAT-deductible to facilitate the technological upgrading of enterprises and enhance their capability for self-development. These reform measures will be tried out first in some industries in northeast China this year. Supporting measures must be formulated quickly so that we can carry out the plan for reforming the export tax rebate system in earnest.



We will carry forward the reform of the investment system. Our main objectives are to reform the system of government oversight of enterprise investment and allow enterprises greater independence in making investment decisions in line with the principle that "the investor makes the investment decisions, reaps the profits and bears the risks." Another objective is to rationally define the government's investment functions, improve the management of government investment and establish an accountability mechanism for government investment. Finally, we want to establish a macro-control mechanism for investment and improve control methods and measures.



These efforts will result in a new investment system under which investment is guided by the market, enterprises make their own investment decisions, banks examine credit worthiness independently, various forms of financing coexist, intermediary services are standardized and macro-control is efficient.



We need to quickly establish a system to ensure credibility in society. We need to make intensive efforts to put in place a system for collecting information on the credibility of enterprises and individuals, a system for overseeing the credit market, and a mechanism for penalizing those who lose their credibility.



We should intensify our efforts to rectify and standardize the market order, giving priority to cleaning up markets that have a direct bearing on people's health and lives such as those for food and medicine. Producing and marketing counterfeit and shoddy goods, pyramid schemes and commercial fraud must be severely punished.



Intellectual property rights must be protected more effectively and piracy and patent infringement must be punished in accordance with the law. We must severely crack down on tax evasion, tax fraud, money laundering, smuggling and other illegal and criminal activities.



7. Adapting to the new situation and opening still wider to the outside world



We must coordinate domestic development with opening up, fully exploit domestic and foreign markets and resources, and expand development into new areas. We will do all our work pertaining to opening up energetically and improve our ability to participate in international cooperation and competition.



We will strive to keep foreign trade growing at an appropriate rate. We should continue to follow the strategy of market diversification, emphasize the export of technology, compete on quality, optimize our export mix, and promote the transformation and upgrading of the processing trade. We should improve coordination among foreign trade entities, strive to overcome trade barriers and minimize trade friction to create a fair trade environment for our enterprises. The foreign-related economic system must be further reformed.



We will carry out the policy of allowing enterprises under all types of ownership to independently engage in importing and exporting. We should import more badly needed raw and processed materials, key technologies and important equipment and diversify our sources of important imports.



More rational and appropriate use of foreign capital is necessary to raise the performance of foreign investment. We will continue to enforce policies and measures that encourage foreign investment and further improve our investment environment.



We should speed up the implementation of the strategy of "going global" and better coordinate and guide Chinese investment abroad. Enterprises under all forms of ownership are encouraged to invest in overseas operations in various forms and expand their international market shares.



We should energetically carry out bilateral, multilateral and regional economic cooperation. We will continue to conscientiously fulfill all our commitments for China's accession to the WTO.



8. Intensifying job creation and social security work to further improve people's lives



Doing everything possible to create more jobs is one of the major responsibilities of the government. Our targets for 2004 are to create 9 million jobs for urban residents and get 5 million laid-off workers reemployed. We will continue to follow an energetic employment policy, focusing on effectively implementing the policies of fiscal and credit support and tax cuts and exemptions. The central government will allocate 8.3 billion yuan in this year's budget to subsidize reemployment, 3.6 billion yuan more than last year.



We will expand the avenues for employment and emphasize the development of labor-intensive industries, small and medium-sized enterprises and the non-public sector of the economy, promote flexible and diverse types of employment and encourage people to find jobs on their own or become self-employed. We need to develop a fully functioning reemployment assistance mechanism, giving people with difficulties in finding jobs on their own hiring preference in non-profit undertakings funded by the government.



We will support efforts of large and medium-sized state-owned enterprises to separate their secondary lines of business from their core business, turn their secondary lines into independent companies, and reassign their redundant personnel to these new companies.



We will focus our support on reemployment of laid-off workers in old industrial bases, cities and industrial and mining areas whose locally available natural resources have been exhausted, and the defense industry and the coal and logging industries. We will improve our system of employment services to provide better job training and guidance and assist people to find job opportunities. This year is another peak year for college graduates entering the job market and ex-servicemen being transferred to civilian jobs, so we need to work hard to provide them with effective employment guidance and services.



We need to build a social security network suited to China's conditions and the level of our economic development. This is an important yet demanding task.



We will continue to ensure the "two guarantees" and better integrate the "three-stage guarantee." We will steadily integrate the subsistence allowances for these workers into the unemployment insurance system. The existing system of basic old-age pensions for workers will be improved by combining contributions from enterprises and institutions with personal accounts. We will expand the coverage of social security in accordance with the law. We will intensify efforts to collect social security contributions from all types of participating enterprises.



Governments at all levels must put greater effort into law enforcement and inspection in this regard. We will do a better job in providing subsistence allowances for needy urban residents and establish standards and criteria for eligibility.



We will continue to raise social security funds through a variety of channels and manage them properly. On the basis of a review of our efforts to improve the urban social security system in Liaoning Province, we will extend them to Heilongjiang and Jilin provinces. The central government will allocate 77.9 billion yuan this year in subsidies for the "two guarantees" and subsistence allowances for needy urban residents, up 11.3 percent over last year. Local governments will also spend more in this area.



We will take better care of urban and rural residents with special difficulties. We will continue to improve the system of social relief and assistance and help those families that cannot afford medical treatment, tuition for their children, housing or heating in winter. We will improve the "five guarantee" relief program for childless and infirm people in rural areas and ensure funding for it. We will reduce and exempt taxes in disaster-afflicted rural areas and provide relief to the affected people who have difficulties in their production and daily lives. We will show our concern for the disabled and support programs that benefit them.



We must promptly solve problems arising from the demolition of urban residential buildings and the expropriation of farmland. When demolishing urban buildings and relocating their occupants, we must ensure that overall urban development plans and short-term construction plans are strictly followed, that the area to be demolished is defined reasonably, and that the examination and approval procedures are properly applied.



Furthermore, we must improve the policy for compensating and relocating displaced inhabitants, and intensify oversight and inspection. When expropriating farmland, we must strictly limit the area expropriated and follow the plan and proper procedures in accordance with the law. We must promptly give affected farmers reasonable compensation to ensure that their legitimate rights and interests are protected.



Measures must be taken to ensure that rural workers in cities are paid on time and in full. We must pay very close attention to solving the problem of their wages being docked or not paid on time.



The State Council has decided to basically solve the problems of default on construction costs and wage arrears for migrant rural workers in the construction industry within three years. Clearing up such back payments should begin with government-invested projects, but different types of enterprises should also be urged to pay off their arrears as soon as possible.



Enterprises and managers that refuse to pay back wages to migrant rural workers must be held accountable in accordance with the law. We need to develop a mechanism to ensure the timely payment of migrant rural workers' wages, thereby eliminating the root cause of wage arrears. All enterprises must pay wages on time and strictly obey the minimum wage regulations.



We must ensure that all state organs and institutions pay salaries and retirees' pensions on time and in full. New arrears will not be allowed anywhere. Accounts for paying salaries must be placed under stringent oversight, and budgetary funds should be used to pay wages and salaries first.



9. Strengthening democracy and the legal system and safeguarding national security and social stability



Concrete and prudent efforts will be made to promote political restructuring, develop socialist democracy and improve the socialist legal system. We will further expand democracy at the lowest levels of government, improve self-governance by villagers and urban residents, and respect the democratic rights of the government authorities and people at the lowest levels of government. We will uphold and improve the system of workers' conferences and other systems of democratic management practiced in government institutions and enterprises and protect the legitimate rights and interests of workers.



We will continue to carefully carry out work related to ethnic minorities, religious groups and overseas Chinese. We must fully implement the Party's ethnic policy and consolidate and develop socialist ethnic relations based on equality, solidarity and mutual assistance.



In order to promote common prosperity and progress for all our ethnic groups, we will increase support for economic and social development in ethnic minority areas and intensify training of ethnic minorities in all fields of work.



We will fully implement the Party's policy on freedom of religious belief, handle religious affairs in accordance with the law, help religious organizations adhere to the principle of independence and self-governance, and actively guide religions to adapt to socialist society.



We will improve our work concerning overseas Chinese, their relatives in China and returned overseas Chinese, and fully utilize their unique role in promoting the reunification of the motherland and the rejuvenation of the Chinese nation.



The legislative work of the government will be strengthened. We will place greater emphasis on legislation concerning social management and public service. Priority should be given to legislation for dealing with emergencies, protecting farmers' rights and interests, safeguarding employment and social security and developing social undertakings.



We will work hard to improve the quality of government legislation. We must solicit opinions from all sectors of society when drafting important laws and administrative regulations that affect the vital interests of the people. We will work to improve legal and notary services and carefully carry out legal assistance work.



The legitimate rights and interests of women, minors and the handicapped shall be protected as prescribed by law. We will increase publicity and education concerning the law in order to create a good social environment in which the people study the law, understand the legal system and abide by the law.



The government is duty-bound to ensure peace and security for the people. We will further implement all measures to improve all facets of public security and press ahead with efforts to build a crime prevention and control system. We will severely crack down on crimes committed by Mafia-like gangs, violent crimes, frequent property-related crimes, and drug-related crimes. We will increase our efforts to deal with serious crimes and areas with serious security problems.



The funding mechanism for procuratorial, judicial and public security organs will be improved in order to ensure their smooth operation. We take terrorism seriously and will intensify our battle against it.



We will expand and deepen our battle against cults. To ensure public order and social stability, it is imperative that we correctly handle internal contradictions among the people as they crop up under changing circumstances, improve the mechanism for forestalling and resolving conflicts and disputes, and properly handle letters and complaints from the people.



Our strong sense of responsibility for the state and the people compels us to effectively improve our work with regard to safety. We must strengthen oversight and administration to ensure production safety, carry out more special programs to address safety problems, implement preventive safety measures, and improve the system of responsibility for production safety. We will tenaciously investigate all kinds of accidents and prosecute those responsible for them in accordance with the law to uphold the sanctity of the law and disciplinary regulations.



Stepping up efforts to modernize our national defense and armed forces is an important guarantee for safeguarding national security and building a moderately prosperous society in all respects. We will strengthen the building of our armed forces in keeping with the general requirements of "being qualified politically and competent militarily and having an excellent style of work, strict discipline and adequate logistic support."



We will energetically carry forward military reforms with Chinese characteristics and work hard to take efforts to modernize our national defense and armed forces to a higher stage of development. As part of our strategy of using science and technology to build strong armed forces, we will focus on developing new and high technology weaponry and equipment, foster a new type of highly competent military personnel, and promote modernization of our armed forces with IT application as the main content and mechanization as the basis in order to enhance our overall defense capability under hi-tech conditions.



We will adhere to the principle of running the army in accordance with the law and increase its standardization. We will continue to balance efforts to strengthen national defense and economic development and raise the overall effectiveness of efforts to strengthen defense. We will adhere to the principle of combining civilian and military production and letting military production reside in civilian production and vigorously promote the reform, adjustment and development of defense-related science, technology and industry to enhance our capability for independent innovation.



We will work painstakingly to adjust and realign our military strength to ensure that the armed forces are reduced by 200,000 troops and that related tasks are completed by 2005. We will intensify our efforts to build and reform our military logistics apparatus and enhance our logistic support capability. We will make the People's Armed Police more proficient and more capable of responding to emergencies.



Education in national defense among the people will be intensified to raise their awareness of its importance. We will vigorously support the strengthening of national defense and the armed forces and we will build up the reserve forces and the militia to develop a fully functioning national defense mobilization system that is highly effective and can respond rapidly. We will intensify activities to promote mutual support between the military and civilian sectors and their cultural and ethical programs to forge solidarity between the military and the government and between the military and civilians.



III. Government Self-improvement


The government bears heavy and demanding responsibilities in the effort to build a moderately prosperous society in all respects. Governments and leading cadres at all levels need to adapt to new situations and tasks and continually raise their administrative and management ability. In conformity with the principle of government for the people and in order to build a law-based government, we placed special emphasis over the past year on the three basic principles of scientific and democratic policy-making, law-based administration and better administrative oversight. These principles were implemented conscientiously. This year, we will focus on the following aspects of our work.



First, we will further transform government functions. Governments at all levels must fulfill all of their responsibilities. While working to better regulate the economy and oversee the market, the government must pay more attention to social administration and public service work. In particular, we need to speed up the establishment of emergency response mechanisms and improve the government's ability to deal with public crises.



We must accelerate the separation of government functions from enterprise operations, turn over responsibility for more activities the government should not be engaged in to enterprises, nongovernmental organizations and intermediary agencies, and give greater scope to the basic role of the market in resource allocation.



At the same time, we need to strengthen regulation and oversight of intermediary agencies. The government must perform all its functions well, and adapt methods and style of management to changing circumstances to improve the results of its administration and work.



Second, we will adhere to scientific and democratic policy-making. We need to improve the policy-making process by integrating public participation, expert evaluation and government decision-making to ensure that our policies are scientific and correct. We need to speed up the formation and improvement of systems for making collective decisions on major issues, for soliciting opinions from experts, for keeping the public informed and holding public hearings, and for accountability in policy-making.



All major policies must be decided collectively on the basis of in-depth research, widely solicited opinions, and full evaluation by experts. These procedures must be closely followed as one of the long-term basic systems for government work.



Third, we will perform all our duties in accordance with the law. Governments at all levels must exercise their power and perform their duties within the scope of their authority defined by law and in accordance with legal procedures.



All government employees must learn to deal with economic and social issues by legal means. The system of administrative law enforcement needs to be reformed so that the administrative right to grant licenses and impose penalties will be relatively concentrated.



Experiments should be conducted on integrated law enforcement to solve problems of duplicate law enforcement and arbitrary imposition of fines. We need to increase oversight of administrative law enforcement to make it stricter, fairer and more courteous.



We should institute an accountability system for law enforcement and a mechanism for investigating and prosecuting law enforcement improprieties, and improve and strictly implement a system of administrative compensation that holds those who exercise power accountable, places them under supervision and compensates those whose rights have been compromised.



The Administrative Permission Law of the People's Republic of China will come into force officially on July 1, 2004. This is an important law for regulating government acts, and governments at all levels must strictly abide by it.



Fourth, we will consciously accept the oversight of the general public. All power of the government is bestowed by the people, so the government must be accountable to the people, act in their interests and accept their oversight. Only the people's oversight can prevent the government from being lax in its duties.



Governments at all levels should consciously accept the oversight of the people's congresses and their standing committees at the corresponding levels and the democratic oversight of the committees of the People's Political Consultative Conference, and conscientiously listen to the opinions of the democratic parties, federations of industry and commerce, persons without party affiliations and mass organizations.



At the same time, they should accept the oversight of the mass media and the general public. They must take seriously the people's oversight of government organs and employees through reconsideration of administrative decisions, administrative lawsuits and other legal channels.



We should strengthen internal supervision by supporting supervision departments and audit offices in the conduct of their independent oversight in accordance with the law. To keep the people informed so they can oversee government work, we will introduce a system of public information concerning government work and increase the transparency of government work.



Fifth, we will improve the government's style of work and improve the overall quality of public servants. An important aspect of efforts to improve the government's style of work is for government employees to adopt a realistic and pragmatic approach, a scientific outlook on development and a correct attitude toward their own performance.



Governments at all levels need to bear in mind China's current national conditions when acting and making decisions.



We must always be realistic and act in accordance with objective laws. We need to work in an enterprising manner while working within our capabilities and stop the practice of blindly competing to outdo each other. We must persist in doing down-to-earth work, seek practical results, conserve manpower and refrain from building "vanity projects" that waste both money and manpower.



We must determine the true state of affairs and tell the truth; we should not falsify reports or exaggerate achievements. We must make overall plans that balance the interest s of different sectors and stay rooted in the present while having a long-term perspective, instead of blindly seeking quick success and instant benefits. We must continue to improve our work style, reduce the number of meetings and documents, and put more time and energy into going down to the primary level to do investigations and research. Everything we do must stand the tests of actual practice, people's acceptance and history.



The quality of public servants determines how well the government is managed and how efficient it is. It is imperative to build a contingent of public servants who are politically reliable, professionally competent and clean and honest and have a good work style.



They should emancipate their minds, seek truth from facts and keep pace with the times. They should bear in mind that public servants work for the interests of the people, maintain close ties with the people, and serve them wholeheartedly. They should abide by the Constitution and the law and have the ability to administer the government in accordance with the law. They should be dedicated, hard working and eager to learn. They should observe disciplinary regulations and professional ethics. They should be honest, clean, upright, impartial and devoted.



Governments at all levels should be strict in enforcing disciplinary regulations and be fair in meting out rewards and punishments. Training public servants and evaluating their work is very important, and we must intensify our work in this area.



We will work harder to build a clean government and fight more vigorously against corruption. We will develop a mechanism that combines education, institutional measures and oversight to prevent and punish corruption. We will resolutely deal with all breaches of the law or disciplinary regulations and punish those guilty of corruption. We are determined to rectify unhealthy conduct that affects the interests of the people. All government employees, particularly leading officials at all levels, must remain modest and prudent, guard against an arrogant and rash work style, and continue to live plainly and work hard.



Fellow Deputies,



It is our unshakable goal to maintain the long-term stability and prosperity of Hong Kong and Macao. We will continue to uphold the principle of "one country, two systems," according to which " Hong Kong people administer Hong Kong" and "Macao people administer Macao" with a high degree of autonomy, and we will act in strict accordance with the basic laws of the Hong Kong and Macao special administrative regions. We will give our full support to the chief executives and governments of the two regions in their administration in accordance with the law. We will unite as broadly as possible people from all walks of life in Hong Kong and Macao and effectively implement the Closer Economic Partnership Arrangement between the mainland and Hong Kong and the mainland and Macao. We have full confidence in the future of Hong Kong and Macao.



We will adhere to the basic principle of "peaceful reunification and one country, two systems" and, during this current stage, to the eight-point proposal for developing relations across the Taiwan Straits and promoting the peaceful reunification of the motherland. We will vigorously expand visits of individuals across the Straits and economic and cultural exchanges and energetically promote establishment of the "three direct links" between the two sides. We will protect the legitimate rights and interests of our Taiwan compatriots on the mainland in accordance with the law and continue to pursue the resumption of dialogue and negotiations between the two sides on the basis of the one-China principle.



With the utmost sincerity, we will do everything possible to bring about the peaceful reunification of the motherland. We stand firmly opposed to any form of separatist activities aimed at "Taiwan independence" and will never allow anyone to split Taiwan from China by any means. We are convinced that with the unremitting efforts of all the sons and daughters of the Chinese nation, including our Taiwan compatriots, we will realize our common aspiration, the complete reunification of the motherland, as soon as possible.



Fellow Deputies,



The international situation is continuing to undergo complex and profound changes. Peace and development remain the themes of our times. World multipolarization and economic globalization are making tortuous progress. Seeking peace and development and promoting cooperation and progress have become an irreversible historical trend. However, the tendency toward unilateralism is reemerging, local conflicts continue, international terrorist activity is rampant, the North-South gap is widening, and traditional and non-traditional security issues are intertwined. All these problems pose serious challenges to the people of all nations.



During this past year we followed an independent foreign policy of peace. We seized opportunities, responded to challenges, took the initiative, and made noticeable achievements in foreign affairs. We have won more understanding, trust, respect and support from the international community, and we enjoy higher status and greater influence in the international arena than ever before.



This year we will continue to hold high the banner of peace, development and cooperation, unswervingly pursue an independent foreign policy of peace, adhere to the Five Principles of Peaceful Coexistence, increase friendly exchanges and cooperation with other countries, and strive to further improve international and neighboring environments.



We will continue to promote world multipolarization, advocate democracy in international relations and diversity in development models, and encourage the progress of economic globalization in a direction that benefits the common prosperity of all nations. We will adhere to a new concept of security based on mutual trust, mutual benefit, equality and cooperation, and we will oppose hegemonism, power politics, and terrorism in all its manifestations. We will continue to work for a new international political and economic order that is fair and equitable.



We will deepen our friendly cooperation with developing countries, explore new avenues and forms of cooperation, and support the efforts of developing countries to become stronger through unity.



We will continue our policy of friendship and partnership with our neighboring countries, deepen good-neighborly and friendly cooperation with all our neighbors and safeguard regional peace and stability. We will constantly strengthen our relations with developed countries, strive to seek out and expand areas of common interest, gradually settle existing differences through dialogue and consultation on an equal footing, and facilitate the steady development of our relations with developed countries.



We will actively engage in multilateral diplomacy and play a constructive role in the United Nations and other international and regional organizations.



The Chinese government and people will, as always, support the cause of justice for the whole human race and work tirelessly with the people of all other nations to safeguard world peace and promote common development.



Fellow Deputies,



The government is faced with arduous tasks this year, and we are keenly aware of the heavy yet lofty responsibilities we bear. The trust and support that the whole nation gives to the government is for us an inexhaustible source of strength and confidence. We firmly believe that, under the leadership of the Party Central Committee with Comrade Hu Jintao as General Secretary, by holding high the great banners of Deng Xiaoping Theory and the important thought of Three Represents, and by relying closely on the people of all our ethnic groups, we will surely overcome all difficulties and obstacles and make continuous progress in reform and opening up and in the socialist modernization drive!



(Xinhua News Agency March 16, 2004)



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Copyright © China Internet Information Center. All Rights Reserved
E-mail: webmaster@china.org.cn
Tel: 86-10-68326688