Bank adviser sees yuan changes, but gradual

Bank adviser sees yuan changes, but gradualBank adviser sees yuan changes, but gradual
(Reuters)
Updated: 2005-10-24 15:42

TOKYO - An influential economist and adviser to China's central bank said on Monday he saw further changes in policy on the yuan currency and that further appreciation was inevitable in the long run, but that any changes would likely be gradual.


Yu Yongding, director of the Institute of World Economics and Politics of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, speaks at a forum in this December 12, 2003 file photo.
"Personally, I think there will be several further changes," Yu Yongding, head of the Institute of World Economics and Politics at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said in a speech in Tokyo.

Yu said such changes could include expanding the trading band for the yuan or setting a new central rate. He also said China's economy was showing signs of cooling down, or stabilising, but that strong growth would likely continue for the next decade.

Yu is the only academic member of the People's Bank of China's monetary policy committee. The panel gives advice on policy but does not set it.

In July, China scrapped its dollar peg and adopted a managed float that in theory allows the yuan to rise or fall by 0.3 percent a day against the dollar.

But Washington believes the yuan remains seriously undervalued given China's ballooning balance-of-payments surplus and wants the currency, also known as the renminbi, to rise faster.
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Business

China should keep renminbi peg: Noble prize winner
2005/10/13
By William C. Pao The China Post

The winner of the 1999 Nobel Prize in Economics yesterday said mainland China should keep the renminbi pegged against the U.S. dollar in the best interests of everyone.
If Beijing had to raise the value of the RMB -- due to the various international pressures -- it should raise it by "half of a percent each month, or six percent a year," said Robert Mundell, professor of Columbia University.

Mundell made the remarks at the Textile International Forum and Exhibition (TIFE) 2005, an event organized by the Ministry of Economic Affairs and executed by the Taiwan Textile Research Institute (TTRI).

Mundell said a revalued renminbi would lead to the following in China: slowed economic growth, less foreign direct investments, more non-performing loans, and an increase in unemployment rate.

A slowed economy in China is not good for anyone, he said, including the United States as America has become more dependent on mainland China over the years.

The renminbi went up by two percent back in July after Beijing abandoned its decades-long policy of fixing it against the greenback. Mundell called it a "diplomatic" move as China had been pressured by the international community for years to appreciate the RMB.

In his words, instead of focusing on whether renminbi should be revalued, the focus should be on eliminating China's balance of payment surplus and freeing up the Chinese market for foreign capital flow.

The economist is a proponent of currency-pegging policies, calling free-market and laissez-faire advocates as "naive." He cited countries such as Malaysia, which has been pegging the ringgit at 3.8 against the U.S. dollar, as good examples of using an intervention approach to get itself out of the Asian Financial Crisis early.

Speaking on textiles, he said a new quota system imposed on Chinese textiles by Europe and the United States would only help China become better, as the move would force Chinese manufacturers to shift their energy and resources to higher-end products.

Taiwan should definitely focus on innovative, value-added textiles to differentiate its products from those of mainland China, although the other side of the strait has gotten quite good at high-end manufacturing, he said.
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余永定：中国资源短缺 双顺差将致外汇资产缩水

余永定

2005年10月11日16:32 【字号 大 中 小】【留言】【论坛】【打印】【关闭】

　　在过去25年中，中国经济取得了无可争辩的巨大成就。作为世界第六大经济体和第三大贸易国，中国经济正在进入一个新的发展阶段。为了实现经济的可持续增长，中国有必要对自己的增长战略进行相应调整，逐步解决多年来积累下来的一些结构性问题。我认为中国目前所存在的结构性问题主要包括以下五个方面。

　　第一， 对外依存度过高。

　　2004年中国的贸易总额对GDP比超过70%，2005年还将进一步上升。在全世界，没有任何大国的贸易总额对GDP之比达到中国这样的高度。在号称严重依赖外需的日本以及号称世界上最开放的美国，这一比例都在20%左右。中国贸易以加工贸易为主，这只会加强而不会削弱中国经济的对外依存度。

　　由于经济规模日益增大，中国许多进、出口产品在世界市场上已经占据了很高的份额。中国进口增加导致原材料价格暴涨，出口增加导致劳动密集型制造品价格暴跌，已引起世界高度关注，针对中国的贸易保护主义愈演愈烈。

　　对外依存度过高不但反映了中国贸易品部门和非贸易品部门发展的失调，而且使中国经济越来越容易受到外部冲击的影响。

　　第二，投资效益过低。

　　在过去25年中，中国的投资率平均维持在40%左右，在2004年更是超过了45%，2005年有可能达到50%。中国的投资率之高在世界上没有任何国家可以相比。

　　在投资率不断提高的同时，中国的投资效率却在持续下降。换言之，为了取得同一个百分比的经济增长，国民经济中所需要牺牲的消费比例越来越高。

　　中国必须大力提高资本效率。把更多资源用于增加人力资本，提高全要素生产率，从而把中国经济增长置于可持续的基础之上。

　　第三，国际收支结构失衡。

　　在历史上，似乎还没有哪个国家曾经像中国这样，在如此长的时间内同时维持经常项目和资本项目的“双顺差”——在亚洲金融危机之后，许多亚洲国家出现了这种双顺差。这种形势将如何发展还有待观察。

　　中国是世界第一大直接投资引资国，累积直接投资量接近6000亿美元。与此同时，中国通过购买美国国库券等形式大量输出资本，目前已经积累了7000多亿美元的外汇储备。中国在引进大量长期资本的同时，输出了更为大量的短期资本。

　　一个简单的事实是：作为一个资本短缺的国家，中国成了世界上最重要的资本输出国之一。“双顺差”说明中国资源配置极为不合理。不断贬值的美元，更将造成中国外汇资产的缩水。

　　第四，高能耗、高污染的增长方式难以为继。

　　中国产业是以能源和矿产资源密集型制造业为主导的。2004年中国已经超过日本成为世界第二大石油输入国。中国对铁矿石和其他许多矿产资源的需求成为导致世界矿产品价格的飞涨重要原因之一。

　　中国是一个资源贫乏的国家，而世界能源和矿产资源供给不但有限而且很不稳定。中国的水污染和空气污染已经到了十分严重的程度，今后我们将为此付出越来越沉重的代价。

　　中国必须充分利用价格杠杆、产业政策和其他手段，提高企业经济效益和优化产业结构。否则，中国经济增长将因瓶颈制约而走入死路。

　　第五，公共产品投资严重不足。

　　中国在医疗卫生、社会福利保障体系、环境保护、普遍义务教育等领域的投资严重滞后于经济增长速度。中国城镇与农村、内地与沿海以及社会不同阶层之间贫富差距扩大的速度令人瞠目。

　　在2000年世界卫生组织对成员国卫生筹资与分配公平性的评估排序中，中国列188位，在191个成员国中倒数第4。这是我们所不愿看到的。为了建立和谐社会，社会发展和经济发展的不协调必须尽快加以纠正。

　　中国的经济结构调整，需要有一套综合治理方案。除进一步深化经济体制改革和政府结构改革，完善市场机制、清除腐败外，公共财政、产业政策和汇率政策等也应在这一调整过程中发挥重要作用。而增加这种投资，恰是提升消费率从而拉动经济良性增长的好事。

　　(作者系中国社会科学院世界经济与政治研究所所长)

来源：《环球》杂志 （责任编辑：徐辉）